Why is it said that improving one's judgment is a thousand times more important than hard work?

In the afternoon, while chatting with a few old friends, we found that those who have successfully navigated multiple bull and bear markets in Crypto and become wealthy all share a common trait:

Exceptional judgment!

Judgment is extremely important and is a severely underestimated ability in this era, while hard work is greatly overestimated. Direction is always more important than speed; wisdom and judgment are highly correlated.

I believe the definition of judgment should be:

The ability to make wise decisions in complex or uncertain situations, involving the assessment of information, consideration of alternatives, and prediction of outcomes. It combines knowledge, experience, and critical thinking, making it an essential skill.

Naval once said: In the age of leverage, one correct decision or doing one thing right can help you win everything.

This is indeed the case. For example, if you dared to buy the dip on March 12 and May 19, and had the courage to escape during the Luna and FTX events, each decision behind those actions is worth a fortune.

Correct decisions can indeed make you wealthy or make you poorer. Buffett spends most of his time contemplating, thinking, and observing, only making that important decision at the right moment.

The essence of making correct decisions lies in whether you have foresight or judgment.

Establishing a decision-making model and clear judgment: logic and mathematics, clear thinking, being pragmatic, recognizing the truth of the world, and being honest with oneself.

Below are some methods for improving judgment that grok3 shared with me after our conversation. Judgment cannot be achieved through short-term training; it can only be gained through our experiences and long-term learning:

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