Yesterday, the entire market cooled down again, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000.

Many voices attribute this decline to the recent epic theft incident at the Bybit exchange.

Although the exchange's efforts and various assistance have led to a relatively proper handling of the incident, there are concerns that the stolen ETH could create significant selling pressure in the market.

In fact, whether this selling pressure actually occurs or not, this incident will certainly have a substantial impact on market sentiment.

In addition, some recently released data from the U.S. fell short of expectations, and the potential negative impacts of Trump's latest policies, among other factors, will also exert some pressure on the crypto market.

The current crypto market has become like a "startled bird"; any slight disturbance, whether external or internal, could lead to a market downturn.

Aside from these issues, there is another matter that has recently garnered significant attention:

Pump.fun is set to launch its own AMM exchange.

As soon as this news broke, the token of the Raydium exchange, which heavily relies on Solana meme coins, also faced a significant impact.

On the surface, it seems that Pump.fun does not want to let profits flow to outsiders. Since the exchange has made such substantial profits, why not do it themselves?

However, it feels more like an escalation of internal competition, where the profits from issuing meme coins are becoming increasingly thin. In this situation, project parties are no longer willing to share benefits with other collaborators in the ecosystem.

In the past, such occurrences typically happened during deep bear markets. We have seen many such examples in the Ethereum ecosystem in 2022 and 2023.

Although I believe that this round of market activity has been in a bear market, the fact that internal competition is escalating now is somewhat surprising.

This also indicates that there currently seems to be no sub-sector in the entire ecosystem that can attract external attention, leading to internal competition.

Considering the above situations and reflecting on everything we have experienced in this round of market activity, one phenomenon is becoming increasingly evident:

Although Bitcoin still appears to be the leader of the entire market and is driving the entire crypto ecosystem, it is becoming increasingly unable to stand alone. In the past, when the entire ecosystem faced various shocks, other coins would drop, but Bitcoin could still withstand the impact; now, Bitcoin is also struggling to bear these shocks.

This increasingly clearly indicates that without the prosperity of the entire ecosystem, Bitcoin's price itself is also unstable.

For the entire ecosystem to experience a broad rise, there must be a real explosion of applications. Without technological, model, and business innovations, the advancement of the entire crypto ecosystem can only rely on Bitcoin's "digital gold" concept for support. However, this concept cannot sustain the ecosystem in the long term, nor can it support Bitcoin's price in the long run.

Since Bitcoin broke through $100,000 in early December last year, it has hovered around that price. Various positive news that followed has hardly pushed its price higher, but any negative news from within or outside the ecosystem could easily bring Bitcoin's price down below $100,000.

Therefore, I believe that if the crypto ecosystem does not experience another explosion, even if policies like Bitcoin becoming a national reserve in the U.S. are truly implemented in the future, the upward potential for Bitcoin in this round of market activity will be very limited. If any further negative information arises from external or internal sources, Bitcoin's price could continue to decline.

I once speculated that this round of market activity might peak between March and August, but now it seems that unless a miracle occurs within the ecosystem, under the current circumstances, even if there is a peak, it will likely be a lackluster market.

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