Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Article writing time: February 28, 13:09 Beijing time
Market Information
- Arthur Hayes: I expect Bitcoin to fall below 80,000 over the weekend;
- The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is 95.5%;
- Daily News: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw record outflows, Robinhood seeks to "unlock the true power of the cryptocurrency revolution," etc.;
- Glassnode: The Bitcoin cost concentration zone of 96,000 to 98,000 may serve as a strong resistance level;
- The Texas Business and Commerce Committee has passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill and submitted it for Senate review. (Watcher.Guru)
Market Review
Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average and saw a slight rebound during the day. However, after reaching around 86,600, it did not continue to break through, and the market directly fell below yesterday's low. As of now, the low point is around 79,300, and yesterday's long positions undoubtedly hit stop-losses, continuously making long trades and refreshing the low points. The market is also quite panicked, with Ethereum's drop also falling to the previous low point around 2,084, and long positions were also stopped out. After testing support in this wave of decline, we need to see if the daily and weekly charts can effectively defend. If they can hold, there is still a chance for a rebound; we should pay attention to whether the support is effective.
Market Analysis
BTC:
From the daily chart, the current low point of Bitcoin's decline is at the midpoint of the rebound from 49,000 to 110,000, having dropped 50%. This position has not yet been effectively broken. Previously, we set up longs at two short-term support levels, which were stopped out. Here, we should not rush to set up longs again; let's be more cautious and focus on whether this position can successfully defend today and this week. If it can hold, the market will likely return to around 95; if it continues to decline, we may need to look at around 72. Based on the trend, we will make arrangements. This week, we will wait first, and if the market gives us an opportunity, we can make a profit back. Pay attention to the situation if it breaks below 79,500; if it doesn't break, it may rebound to 95; if it breaks, it may drop to 72. For short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently.
ETH:
From the daily chart, Ethereum's low point is around the previous support of 2,100, which has been tested several times without breaking. This is considered strong support. Bitcoin has also reached near support; if Bitcoin does not continue to fall, it will be difficult for Ethereum to break down here. In trading, we can set up around this level. If it breaks below 2,100, it will go to 1,640. Currently, Ethereum should not drop below 1,000. In trading, consider going long around 2,100, with a stop-loss at 2,000 and a target of 2,450. Use light positions and manage entry opportunities independently; for short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently.
In summary:
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached short-term support levels, with Ethereum being a strong support where we can set up. Bitcoin should focus on the defense of support.
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, and the above is only personal advice for reference!
Follow the WeChat public account Crypto Lao Zhao to discuss the market together;
All sources of suffering stem from the pursuit of certainty. Impermanence is the norm and the way life should be. Always wanting to grasp the market, not acting on a 50% certainty, not acting on a 70% certainty, must wait for a 100% certainty—where is there a 100% certainty in the market? Trading is about trading risks, trying to make the odds stand on your side. Those who give love will receive love in return; those who bring blessings will receive blessings. Sometimes, learn to take a little loss, be a bit foolish, a bit clumsy. For example, if the market is bullish, once this is confirmed, don’t get too stuck on the position, lower the position size a bit, and then get in first; if it reverses, so be it.
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