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Bitcoin Whale Holdings Changes: Recently, whales numbered 34, 48, and 56 have increased their Bitcoin holdings. However, the amount of increase is almost negligible compared to the reductions made by whales numbered 12 and 22.
Fortunately, there has been no significant reduction in whale holdings. With Bitcoin prices hovering around $80,000, many mining operations have shut down, leading to a new change in the market: whales are no longer selling off their tokens in large quantities but may instead begin to accumulate tokens slowly. This shift could be a positive signal for the market's gradual stabilization.
Cryptocurrency ETF: Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $12.8 million. On the 25th and 26th, outflows were $900 million and $800 million, respectively, with an outflow of $500 million on the 24th. Overall, funds continue to flow out, clearly indicating that market participants are actively avoiding risks.
Current market risks have significantly increased, and there is a viewpoint suggesting that after Bitcoin breaks the $90K mark, this upward trend may essentially come to an end. Until the asset value of Bitcoin ETFs turns from negative to positive, we should not hold overly high expectations for Bitcoin's market performance, as only a reversal in ETF fund flows could indicate signs of a market rebound.
II. Technical Analysis Interpretation
U.S. Stock Indices: From a technical perspective, the movements of U.S. stock indices have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Currently, the Nasdaq index has broken below 18,889 points, and this key level's breach essentially indicates a breakout at the top of the U.S. stock market.
Once the top is breached, the U.S. stock market is likely to enter a bear market. This situation is similar to Bitcoin breaking the $90K - $92K range, where the breach of key levels often triggers significant market trend changes, leading to uncertainty in subsequent market movements.
Gold Prices: Gold prices have also reached a peak, hovering above 2956, just a step away from the upper boundary of the $3000 channel. However, from a daily chart perspective, gold has broken its neckline.
Although the current downward trend is not particularly pronounced, from a technical analysis standpoint, gold is more likely to trend downward in the coming movements. We need time to verify the development of this trend, but as it stands, the outlook for the gold market is not optimistic.
U.S. Dollar Index: The U.S. dollar index is currently at the lower boundary of its channel. After touching the lower boundary for some time, it began to rise yesterday, showing a strong rebound. This rebound indicates strong momentum for the dollar index, and we need to keep an eye on whether it can continue to rise. The strong performance of the dollar index yesterday undoubtedly had a significant impact on the global financial market and added more variables to the cryptocurrency market's movements.
BTC: Bitcoin prices hit a new low this morning, reaching around $81,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average. The 200-day moving average is crucial for Bitcoin's price movements; if breached, Bitcoin will face significant downward pressure.
Looking back at history, in October 2023, Bitcoin broke the 200-day moving average and continued until it fell below it in July of last year, after which it oscillated around the 200-day moving average before starting a new round of market activity in November. This time, as Bitcoin touches the 200-day moving average again, it is likely to show signs of a bottoming out. This position not only serves as support for the 200-day moving average but also aligns with the lower boundary of the channel and is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($79,000), creating a resonance of multiple support levels.
If Bitcoin prices continue to fall to the $79,000 - $78,000 range, it will essentially fill the gap in Bitcoin's futures market, and the support at this position will be even stronger. If prices drop further to $72,000, this position represents a top area for 2024, and below that is a densely traded area.
Since Bitcoin broke below $92,000, it has created a vacuum zone from $90,000 down to $72,000, where there is minimal resistance to price declines. This is why it is said that after breaking key levels, Bitcoin's price may plummet.
From a weekly chart perspective, Bitcoin's current 50-week moving average is around $75,000, close to the 618 Fibonacci level and near the high point for 2024. If Bitcoin prices have the opportunity to drop to the $72,000 - $75,000 range, it may be worth considering bottom-fishing or buying a portion.
In this area, Bitcoin is likely to experience a strong rebound. Of course, there is uncertainty in the market; if Bitcoin prices do not rebound in this area and continue to test lower levels, although this possibility is relatively small, caution is still advised.
ETH: From a weekly chart perspective, Ethereum has broken below the 200-day moving average, and the only support left is the upward trend line, which corresponds to a price around $2,100. Currently, Ethereum's price is $2,185, very close to this critical support level. If this support level is breached, Ethereum will face a significant risk of decline.
From a daily chart perspective, Ethereum has reached previous lows. From a 4-hour chart perspective, Ethereum has broken the trend line at this position, forming a descending wedge. After breaking the descending wedge, the price continues to decline. It is crucial to closely monitor whether Ethereum's price can find effective support at $2,100 during this downward movement. This support level is vital; if it breaks again, the consequences could be dire.
Today, we particularly recommend paying attention to CKB. CKB has shown signs of bottoming out at the $0.0055 level, which is precisely the neckline of a double bottom. After showing signs of bottoming, CKB surged 27% today on the daily chart, reaching a high of $0.007742.
Welfare Strategy: Currently, the fear index has risen from 10 yesterday to 16, indicating an extremely fearful state. In this market sentiment, we believe that students can allocate a portion of their funds for investment, such as using up to 30% of their capital, which is a relatively reasonable choice.
If, on the 4-hour or 2-hour chart, CKB's price retraces to around $0.0071, you may consider entering the market, as this position represents a horizontal resistance level. Once CKB's price reaches this level, we tentatively see the upward target around the 50-day moving average at $0.0078.
If CKB can break through the $0.0078 level and continue to rise, it could potentially reach as high as $0.011, but the likelihood of reaching $0.01 is relatively small, with the overall upward potential around 10% - 15%. You can seize this opportunity based on your risk tolerance and investment goals.
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