Before discussing trading, we must talk about risk control. Every trade is a probability; under the premise of technical analysis, experience, and market analysis, we only increase the probability. Therefore, there are no guaranteed profitable trades. As traders, what we need to actively do is control risk. A good stop-loss allows you to prepare again, adjust your mindset, and plan for the next battle.

The downward momentum of the market is still ongoing. The technical rebound from overselling cannot support a significant change in market trends, and market capital does not allow for a rebound. Yesterday, after the market dropped near 82,200, it briefly rebounded to around 87,000, but under the pressure of bears, it fell to a low of about 79,100 this morning, showing no signs of stopping the decline. It can be seen that the overall trend of the market is still very weak, with lower lows being gradually refreshed, bringing great shock to the market. In terms of operations, yesterday still followed the market's trajectory, treating it as a short position, choosing to participate in short layouts at 86,000, ultimately welcoming the market's decline and achieving short profits. In a market that follows the trend, the trend is king.

On the technical side, influenced by the recent continuous decline, all levels of cycles on the chart show bearish technical arrangements. Bitcoin has approached a nearly 30% drop from its peak. At this stage, the market is more about discussions on bulls and bears. I remember mentioning my views on this round of market last year. The start of the entire bull market is inseparable from the influence of policy news. From the approval of ETFs to the subsequent favorable expectations of the election of the special manager, and now various tariff policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, each stage has brought sufficient volatility to the market. In other words, whether it’s a bull or bear market, it largely depends on policy actions. For example, there have been ongoing rumors about the U.S. strategic reserve of Bitcoin. If this is truly implemented, it will lead to another bull market.

In terms of operations, Bitcoin is still in a downward phase. After breaking below yesterday's low, it has shown even weaker performance. According to market operation rules, a weak market does not rebound; instead, it transitions from rebound to consolidation. Generally, in a weak market, consolidation replaces rebound corrections. For intraday operations, if the weakness continues without a significant rebound, consider entering short around 80,500, looking for the market to continue to test around 78,000.

Ethereum is performing poorly, continuously losing support below, currently oscillating at a low level, with the trend still downward. The overall strategy continues to look for short opportunities as it retraces. In the short term, pay attention to around 2,180 for a rebound to open a short position, targeting 2,000.

[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.]

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