The reasoning is this: the benefits in Q1 are more policy-oriented, which won't significantly help liquidity and investors' risk appetite. However, Q4 is likely to enter a new interest rate cut cycle, which presents a better opportunity for actual liquidity and risk appetite.

So if I had to choose, I might think that the returns in Q4 will be greater than in Q1, but it's still a return, not an absolute value. If Q2 or Q3 enters an economic recession, then even if Q4 rebounds, it won't be as strong as Q1.

Conversely, if Q2 and Q3 don't drop too severely and can still fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000, then it's not impossible for Q4 to break new highs.

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