Recent price movement suggests bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a relief rally following a sharp decline to $78,197. However, multiple technical indicators indicate that the dominant trend remains bearish. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 25, signaling neutral conditions, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level remains negative at -3,345, indicating that bearish momentum is still in play. Additionally, the momentum oscillator registers at -11,908, reinforcing the weakness in upward price movement. Although the Stochastic and commodity channel index, at the moment, suggest short-term positive signals, broader moving averages (MAs) overwhelmingly suggest continued downward pressure.

On BTC’s daily chart, bitcoin is trading well below key resistance zones between $85,000 and $90,000, and the downward trajectory is supported by high selling volume. Every major moving average, including the exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) across 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 periods, reflects a strong negative sentiment. The only outlier is the simple moving average (SMA-200), which provides a bullish signal at $81,995, suggesting that this level may serve as a longer-term support. Given the broader market trend, any bounce toward resistance is likely to face significant selling pressure, making current price action suspect.

BTC/USD 1D chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 28, 2025.

The 4-hour chart reflects a sharp sell-off, followed by a mild recovery that has yet to establish a sustainable uptrend. Resistance remains firmly in place at $84,000 to $86,000, with support holding near $78,000 to $80,000. A break above $85,000 with strong volume could shift momentum toward $90,000, but a rejection at this level would likely accelerate another downturn. The average directional index (ADX) at 43 confirms that the prevailing trend remains strong, favoring further downside unless bitcoin decisively breaks above key resistance levels.

BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 28, 2025.

Short-term traders may find opportunities within the 1-hour chart, where increased volume has accompanied a small bounce. While bullish interest appears to be picking up within the $80,000 to $82,000 zone, a failure to hold above $79,000 could invalidate any bullish setups. If bitcoin reclaims $85,000, a push toward $88,000 to $90,000 may follow, but the broader technical landscape suggests caution. The overwhelming bearish outlook from moving averages and weak momentum indicators make this recent price action susceptible to a bull trap, where buyers may be lured into the market before another sharp sell-off occurs.

BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 28, 2025.

Given the combination of technical factors, traders should approach the current price action with skepticism. While bitcoin’s short-term bounce is drawing attention, major resistance levels and persistently bearish moving averages cast doubt on the sustainability of this recovery. A failure to break above $85,000 convincingly would likely reinforce the bear case, leading to another test of support at $78,000 or lower. As market conditions remain volatile, risk management is crucial, as the possibility of a deeper retracement remains in play.

Bull Verdict:

While bitcoin remains under significant selling pressure, the presence of strong support at $78,000 to $80,000, along with an increase in buying interest on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, suggests that a short-term recovery could be underway. If bitcoin can sustain a move above $85,000 with strong volume, a push toward $90,000 and beyond could signal the start of a broader reversal. However, bulls must proceed cautiously, as failure to break resistance may lead to renewed downside pressure.

Bear Verdict:

Despite a temporary bounce, bitcoin’s technical indicators overwhelmingly point to continued bearish momentum. The dominance of bearish signals across all major moving averages, coupled with weak momentum and a struggling MACD, suggests that this price recovery may be a bull trap. Unless bitcoin reclaims $90,000, the likelihood of another downturn remains high, with a potential retest of $78,000 or lower in the coming sessions.

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