From the data, ISM's PMI is still declining, not only below the previous value but also below expectations, especially as the price payment index reached 62.4, possibly due to concerns over tariffs. However, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February in the U.S. has increased. The comparison of these two data points shows that small and medium-sized enterprises are active, while large enterprises face challenges (such as rising costs and decreasing orders).

PS: The market impact of ISM PMI is stronger, but the S&P Global PMI is more indicative of future manufacturing trends.

Currently, discussions about recession mainly focus on two major aspects: GDP and unemployment rate. Regarding GDP, the data provided by GDPNow is not particularly optimistic, but the specific data will not be released until April. Therefore, if there are doubts about a tendency towards recession, the short-term outlook is still relatively good.

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