So the sequence of events today is roughly that the war between Russia and Ukraine is not progressing as well as imagined, mainly because Trump and Zelensky could not reach an agreement, leading to Zelensky being ousted from the White House, and it was publicly stated that it was Zelensky who did not want peace.

At the same time, while imposing high tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, there will also be tax adjustments globally, mainly targeting Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. The combined effect of this could lead to a very unfavorable trend in U.S. inflation.

Moreover, it will also impose certain restrictions on the U.S. economy, as tariffs are reciprocal. China, Canada, and the European Union have already indicated that they will raise tariffs on the U.S. Additionally, the breakdown of negotiations with Ukraine has significantly impacted U.S. imports of rare earth minerals, which is an area influenced by China.

Of course, the benefit of tariffs is that they can increase fiscal revenue, as there is an additional 25%, but the downside is that this additional cost will obviously be passed on to American consumers.

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