The Federal Reserve's most direct response can be seen not just in what they say, but by looking at the dot plot from March 20. If the Federal Reserve believes that the impact of tariffs is minimal, then a reduction in interest rates twice or even more by 2025 is possible. Of course, if the Federal Reserve thinks that tariffs could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, it would also increase the number of rate cuts.

Therefore, on the 20th, we cannot simply look at the number of dots in the plot; we also need to consider the Federal Reserve's explanation for the number of cuts—whether it is due to favorable inflation expectations or because of anticipated economic decline in the U.S.

However, regardless of the situation, a number less than 2 would still be quite troublesome.

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