Current Situations

1】The tariff war continues, with Trump consistently increasing taxes, but none of the measures have truly been implemented. The recent tariffs on agricultural products (mainly affecting Mexico and Canada) will directly impact basic consumer prices, and Canada has responded strongly.

2】Inflation is rebounding, and inflation expectations are rising.

3】The probability of a seasonal economic recession has shown a rebound for the first time in six months (the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow predicts that the U.S. GDP will contract by 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter). Concerns about recession, which had disappeared for a long time, have returned to the public's view. Besides tariffs, the layoffs at DOGE are an important factor contributing to the recession.

4】The debt crisis has sparked discussions again. Ray Dalio from Bridgewater has expressed his views on U.S. debt, believing that a crisis will erupt in three years. We are currently at a zero point. One of Trump's core tasks during his term is to address the massive U.S. debt issue, with measures like increasing tariffs and withdrawing aid aimed at debt reduction. The market is now focused on Trump's upcoming announcement regarding domestic tax cuts this Tuesday.

5】Trump's strategy and attitude towards Russia and Ukraine have raised concerns about the disruption of long-term partnerships between Europe and the U.S.

6】Deepseek is impacting the high valuations of AI stocks in the U.S. The companies heavily invested in AI, such as NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, META, and AMZN, are all affected.

7】The VIX fear index has surged, but related assets have not yet seen significant volume. Technical indicators show there is still room for growth, and the S&P needs to maintain the 5600-5800 range.

Anxiety fills the entire market, and preparations for a mid-term correction should be made before the new earnings season arrives at the end of March.

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