Trump's Speech: "Silence is More Powerful than Words," Undercurrents in the Crypto Market
In recent financial market dynamics, Trump's speech in Congress has attracted significant attention from all sectors. Although the speech did not mention the crypto industry at all, the cryptocurrency market still experienced notable fluctuations, which can be described as "though not named, it has already stirred the market's nerves." Trump vigorously promoted his past achievements during the speech, harshly criticized the current inflation, emphasized the urgency of border security, and painted a beautiful vision of global peace. However, he made no mention of the cryptocurrency sector, which has been controversial and closely watched in recent years. Market participants unexpectedly viewed this "silence" as a "positive sign," as the uncertainty of Trump's past policy statements had generally led the market to worry that he might express unfavorable views on cryptocurrencies, triggering market turmoil.
Multiple Macro Factors Intertwined, Crypto Market Trends Affected
The current trends in the cryptocurrency market are not isolated but are profoundly influenced by various macro factors. Trump's previously proposed reserve plan, although lacking in details, has sparked widespread speculation and discussion in the market, with its potential impact continuing to ferment. Meanwhile, the trade war between the U.S., Canada, and China is escalating, with frequent adjustments to trade policies and fluctuating tariffs, creating an uncertain global economic environment. Against this backdrop, the trends in the cryptocurrency market are closely linked to the stock market, showing a strong correlation. This Friday, the first White House crypto summit is set to take place, becoming a new focal point for the market. However, according to preparatory information for the summit, it may lack specific policy support, leading to cautious market sentiment. Investors are closely watching whether the summit will serve as a catalyst for driving cryptocurrency prices up or trigger a new wave of large-scale sell-offs.
Macro Data Warning, Economic Direction a Mystery
From the perspective of macroeconomic data, the high yield spread of U.S. Treasuries has widened to 290bps, highlighting instability in the bond market. The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast has turned negative, dropping to -2.8%, further intensifying market concerns about the direction of the macro economy. The non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday and the CPI data coming out next week have become key indicators for the market to assess macroeconomic trends. All parties in the market are eagerly awaiting these data releases, attempting to capture clues about economic development to provide strong support for investment decisions.
Bitcoin Short-Term Rebound, Bull-Bear Tug of War Awaits Resolution
From the internal perspective of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's short-term performance is particularly noteworthy. Bitcoin is currently at a critical stage of confirming a rebound and repairing its high point. From a technical analysis standpoint, the first resistance level is forming a significant pressure around 92,000, with the next key resistance level at around 95,000. Considering the overall trend's rebound space, Bitcoin is in the process of constructing a high point. The market faces a key question: will Bitcoin drop directly after being pressured at 92,000, or will it first make a slight upward move before facing pressure and retreating? Early in the week, the focus is mainly on confirming the resistance area, with the 4-hour K-line chart showing an unclear direction, while the daily level has initially shown signs of pressure. From the perspective of the larger box structure, the market remains stable within a downward box structure. Yesterday, Bitcoin's price hit a bottom, precisely landing in the support area of the downward box structure, and a subsequent rebound is within market expectations. The key to short-term operations now lies in judging the strength of the rebound, which directly affects investors' trading strategies and returns.
Ethereum Linked to the Market, Bull-Bear Tug of War Intensifies
The market trend of Ethereum is strongly correlated with the overall market. Yesterday, Ethereum quickly rebounded after dipping to around 1989, surging to around 2223 in the early morning but faced significant pressure. The price maintained slight fluctuations in the morning, and in the afternoon, it rose again with the overall market, testing the 2273 level before retreating under pressure. Recently, the rebound strength of Ethereum has significantly increased, with the K-line chart showing full bullish and bearish candlestick patterns, indicating that the tug of war between bulls and bears in the market will further intensify. When trading Ethereum, investors need to pay close attention to the breakout situation of the upper pressure platform and flexibly adopt low-buy layout strategies based on real-time market changes to cope with market uncertainties.
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