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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis (March 6, 2025)
1. Macroeconomic Environment: The Dual Game of the Federal Reserve and Trump’s Policies
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book Sends Mixed Signals The latest Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity is maintaining "slight to moderate growth," with a slight improvement in the job market and a moderate upward trend in prices. Although the Federal Reserve emphasizes an optimistic outlook for the 2025 economy, it does not explicitly acknowledge potential recession risks, which is consistent with its usual cautious statements. Notably, the impact of Trump’s tariff policies has been included in the Federal Reserve's list of concerns, as manufacturers stockpile inventory in anticipation of potential tariff increases, which may lead to rising supply chain costs. This policy uncertainty is becoming a significant driver of market volatility.
Non-Farm Data: The Focus of Bull and Bear Games The "small non-farm" (ADP) data released on Wednesday showed an increase of only 77,000 jobs, far below the expected 140,000. Although this data suggests a cooling labor market, the market's reaction to Friday's non-farm report remains divided:
If the data is weaker than expected: It may strengthen the market's bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (the current market expects three rate cuts in 2025), boosting risk asset preferences, and Bitcoin may benefit from expectations of liquidity easing.
If the data is stronger than expected: It may trigger concerns about "stagflation," and a stronger dollar could suppress cryptocurrency valuations. Completely baffling! Non-farm employment far exceeded expectations, yet gold and oil surged, the reasons are chilling upon reflection! Special attention should be paid to wage growth and labor participation rates, as these two indicators will directly affect inflation expectations and policy paths.
2. Trump’s Crypto Summit: Market Turbulence Under Expectation Management
The Reality of BTC Strategic Reserves The Trump administration plans to discuss cryptocurrency strategic reserves at the White House crypto summit on March 7. Based on historical statements, the most likely scenario is to retain the existing Bitcoin held by the government (such as assets seized by law enforcement) rather than making large-scale purchases. If it is only announced that there will be "no sales," the substantive impact on the market will be limited; however, if it mentions allocating BTC through a sovereign fund (such as tax revenue), even if the scale is small, it may trigger a short-term emotional surge.
Potential Shift in Regulatory Framework The summit may involve topics such as the replacement of the SEC chairman and adjustments to crypto tax policies (such as zero capital gains tax). For Ethereum, if it is clarified that ETH is not classified as a security, it will eliminate long-term regulatory concerns, but the current agenda details are still unclear, and the market should be wary of a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" reversal.
3. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: The Battle for Key Resistance Levels
Price Structure and Volume Verification
Current Price Level: After breaking through $91,000, Bitcoin has temporarily stabilized above the 60-day moving average (around $92,300), but there is strong resistance in the $94,300-$94,950 range (coinciding with the high from four hours ago and the moving average pressure level).
Volume Signals: The breakout in the early morning was accompanied by increased volume, but subsequent volume did not continue to expand, indicating that bulls need further confirmation. If the daily close stabilizes above $93,000, the upward space may open up to $96,000; conversely, if it falls below $91,000, it may retest the $89,600 support.
The Linkage Effect of Non-Farm Data and the Summit Friday's market may show a "first surge then pullback" pattern:
Before Non-Farm: The market may bet on weak data in advance, pushing BTC to test above $94,000.
During the Summit: If policy details do not meet expectations, profit-taking pressure may trigger a pullback. It is recommended to pay attention to short-selling opportunities near $94,300, targeting $91,000-$89,600.
4. Ethereum Analysis: Technical Indicators Favorable but Correlation Limits Gains
Key Technical Signals
Support/Resistance: ETH's short-term support is at $3,200 (weekly level), and resistance is at $3,500 (daily Bollinger Band upper limit).
Indicator Crossovers: A MACD daily golden cross has formed, and the RSI (62) is close to overbought but not overheated; if it breaks through $3,500, it may accelerate upward.
On-Chain Activity: The staking rate has risen to 17%, and active addresses have increased by 10%, indicating enhanced confidence among long-term holders.
Strong Correlation with Bitcoin The current ETH/BTC correlation coefficient is 0.89, meaning if Bitcoin is blocked at $94,000, ETH is unlikely to break through $3,500 independently. Be wary of the risk of ETH following BTC's pullback.
5
Altcoins and U.S. Stock Correlation: Structural Risks Under Capital Rotation
Altcoin Market Sentiment Neutral to Bearish Recently, the altcoin index fell from 59 to 41 and then rebounded to 51, indicating that capital is flowing back from high-risk assets to BTC. If Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, altcoins may further decline by 5%-30%, especially low liquidity projects should be avoided.
Decoupling Signs Between U.S. Stocks and Crypto Markets The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently stopped falling but have not strengthened, with their correlation to Bitcoin dropping to a historical low (0.19). This indicates that cryptocurrencies are gradually breaking free from the influence of traditional risk asset volatility, but if U.S. stocks break down again, they may still indirectly pressure the crypto market through liquidity channels.
6. Trading Strategies and Risk Warnings
Bitcoin:
Bulls: After stabilizing above $93,000, take a light long position, targeting $94,300-$96,000, with a stop loss at $91,000.
Bears: Gradually build short positions in the $94,300-$94,950 range, targeting $91,000-$89,600, with a stop loss at $95,500.
Ethereum:
Chase long positions after breaking $3,500, targeting $3,650; exit and observe if it falls below $3,200.
Macroeconomic Risks:
If non-farm data and summit policies create a "double negative," it may trigger panic selling in the market.
If Trump’s tariff policies unexpectedly escalate, it will increase market volatility.
Conclusion: The current market is in a sensitive period of policy expectations and technical battles. It is recommended to focus on short-term range trading and avoid heavy bets on one side. After Friday's non-farm data and summit outcomes, the market may choose a direction, and it is essential to closely monitor the alignment of trading volume and policy details.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data events, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Expertise includes: mobile lock-up strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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