Trump signed an executive order on Bitcoin strategic reserves, why did the market instead drop significantly?

CN
2 days ago

This morning, the long-awaited executive order for a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the cryptocurrency industry has finally arrived. Around 8 AM on March 7, David Sacks, the White House AI and cryptocurrency director, posted on social media that President Trump signed the executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve just a few minutes ago. However, following this significant positive news, the price of Bitcoin immediately plummeted, dropping from around $90,000 to below $85,000 within an hour. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $88,000.

Trump signs the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, why did the market instead crash?

It is worth noting that the reserve funds for this strategic reserve will consist of Bitcoin owned by the federal government, specifically Bitcoin that has been seized through criminal or civil asset forfeiture procedures. The U.S. government will not sell any Bitcoin deposited in the reserve, but it is also unlikely to purchase more Bitcoin, "which means it won't cost taxpayers a dime," David Sacks wrote in his tweet.

Only hoarding, not buying, triggers Sell The News

In January of this year, Trump signed an executive order directing his government to assess the "feasibility of establishing and maintaining a national digital asset reserve" and formed a working group to study the feasibility, chaired by David Sacks. Marcus, an analyst at 10x Research, pointed out in his report on the strategic reserve that there is a key distinction between "reserves" and "establishing and maintaining a national digital asset reserve."

The term "reserves" indicates a proactive strategy for acquiring more assets, while "establishing and maintaining" suggests a more passive approach, namely a "hoarding without buying" strategy. Marcus mentioned in the report that although the executive order targets a broader range of digital assets rather than just Bitcoin, it also implies that the U.S. government is more inclined to continue holding its existing cryptocurrency rather than purchasing more crypto assets.

On the other hand, Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order has yet to receive congressional approval, and it will take several months before it is formally passed and takes effect, further fueling traders' Sell The News sentiment and motivation.

The U.S. government's handling of currency, reserves, and financial assets is governed by laws and institutions such as the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. Unlike gold or oil, Bitcoin is not a physical asset that the government can store in the traditional sense; it is a decentralized digital currency. Therefore, reserves mean that the government needs to store Bitcoin through a series of secure and reliable formal processes, which will further raise questions regarding funding, security, and other aspects.

However, many practitioners closely related to the current pro-crypto government have also expressed positive views on the executive order.

David Sacks, the White House AI and cryptocurrency director, stated on social media, "The premature sale of Bitcoin by the U.S. government has already cost American taxpayers over $17 billion. Now, the federal government will formulate a strategy to maximize the value of its held Bitcoin." Coinbase executive Conor Grogan also posted on social media, "As I estimate, the U.S. government holds 198,109 Bitcoins. This executive order will reduce about $18 billion in selling pressure."

Trump signs the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, why did the market instead crash?

Additionally, it is noteworthy that, aside from the federal government's efforts in the Bitcoin strategic reserve, many states in the U.S. are also actively responding in this regard. As of now, 18 states in the U.S. are considering or proposing legislation to establish state-level strategic Bitcoin reserves. On February 27, the Texas House of Commerce and Business Committee was the first to review and pass a Bitcoin reserve bill, which was submitted to the Senate for consideration.

The bill aims to establish a Bitcoin reserve controlled by the state government to enhance financial security and promote digital asset innovation. Its main content includes: authorizing the Texas government to hold Bitcoin as a financial asset, managed by the Texas Comptroller's Office, implementing cold storage solutions and conducting regular audits, and prohibiting the acquisition of Bitcoin from foreign entities or individuals involved in illegal activities. If it receives a two-thirds majority approval in the Senate, the bill will take effect immediately; otherwise, it will officially take effect on September 1, 2025.

On March 7, the Texas Senate passed the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill SB-21 with a vote of 25 in favor and 5 against. Subsequently, SB-21 needs to be submitted to the Texas House of Representatives, where the bill will be assigned to relevant committees for review, modification, and hearings.

If the House makes modifications to SB-21, the Senate must agree to those changes; otherwise, both sides will need to coordinate to produce a final version through a conference committee. The final version agreed upon by both sides needs to be voted on separately. After passing both the House and Senate, the bill will be sent to the Texas governor for signature. The governor can choose to sign the bill, making it law.

Soul-searching question: Will the seized Bitcoins from the Bitfinex case be returned?

Currently, the U.S. government holds approximately 200,000 Bitcoins, valued at about $18 billion at current prices. These Bitcoins were seized through various law enforcement actions, with the two main sources being the Silk Road case and the 2016 Bitfinex platform hack.

Related reading: "What Bitcoin addresses does the U.S. government have"

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seized over 90,000 Bitcoins from the Bitfinex hack. The involved hackers, Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, were arrested and convicted for money laundering activities, with Lichtenstein admitting to orchestrating the hack. Subsequently, the U.S. government held the seized Bitcoins as forfeited assets.

After the signing of the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, the question "Should the Bitcoins from Bitfinex be returned?" became a major concern for many industry participants, as this portion of Bitcoin accounts for nearly 50% of the U.S. government's Bitcoin holdings.

The key reason lies in the compensation plan following the Bitfinex hack: after the 2016 hack, Bitfinex reduced all customer balances by 36% and issued BFX (LEO) tokens, which were fully redeemed within eight months. From the government's perspective, this effectively made customers "whole." Therefore, the entity that bore the loss, Bitfinex, is viewed as the primary claimant.

In October 2024, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia submitted a motion suggesting that Bitfinex may be the "sole victim" eligible for compensation under the Crime Victims' Rights Act (CVRA) and the Mandatory Victims Restitution Act (MVRA). This position was reinforced in a document from January 2025, where the government proposed returning the Bitcoins "in kind" (BTC, rather than cash) to Bitfinex.

Related reading: "U.S. government states that funds from the 2016 hack should be returned to Bitfinex"

Trump signs the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, why did the market instead crash?

Previously, Bitfinex promised that once it regained the Bitcoins stolen by hackers, it would repurchase LEO. Many former Bitfinex customers believe that, given the significant appreciation of Bitcoin since 2016, they are entitled to the recovered Bitcoins and argue that the LEO token compensation from the Bitfinex platform does not reflect the future value of BTC.

Thus, after the news in October 2024 that the U.S. government applied for an alternative notice procedure to inform potential victims of the 2016 Bitfinex hack, the Bitfinex platform token LEO surged nearly 40%, indicating the market's high expectations for the U.S. government to return the stolen Bitcoins and for Bitfinex's repurchase plan.

Trump signs the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, why did the market instead crash?

Of course, with the signing of the strategic reserve executive order, the U.S. government's position may change at any time.

What else can we expect from the White House crypto summit?

Additionally, David Sacks mentioned in his tweet this morning that the executive order also establishes a "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve," which aims to manage government digital assets under the leadership of the Treasury Department.

For David Sacks, the upcoming White House crypto summit is currently the top priority. This summit is the first of its kind hosted by the White House and is of high significance. According to multiple media reports, the most eye-catching aspect of this summit may be the "National Crypto Strategic Reserve" plan. This plan intends to incorporate mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Ripple (XRP) into the national reserve system, with a scale and functional positioning similar to traditional oil reserves. According to Forbes, the selection of reserve assets takes into account the characteristics of each currency: Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties as "digital gold," Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem, Solana's high-performance application platform, Cardano's research-driven security architecture, and Ripple's cross-border payment efficiency advantages.

In terms of regulatory framework construction, the summit will focus on the top-level design of stablecoins and the overall regulatory framework. Cointelegraph revealed that Trump advisor David Sacks advocates strengthening the dollar's hegemony through stablecoins, a view that may influence federal regulatory proposals. Currently, the draft bill promoted by the House Financial Services Committee indicates that stablecoin issuers with a market cap exceeding $10 billion may fall under the Federal Reserve's regulatory framework, forming a dual regulatory structure between federal and state governments. Meanwhile, the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" proposed in 2023 may see substantial progress, with its core focus on coordinating the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC to build a regulatory paradigm for digital assets that balances innovation and security.

To achieve the strategic goal of becoming a "crypto capital," the summit may introduce a series of innovative incentives and tax-related policies. CryptoBriefing analysis suggests that the government may relax the regulatory restrictions imposed during the Biden administration. An unexpected detail is that the summit may also discuss tax reforms related to cryptocurrencies. According to BeInCrypto, tax reform could be part of the agenda, potentially affecting investors' tax burdens, involving simplification of tax reporting for crypto transactions or providing tax incentives to promote industry growth.

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