Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded individuals on the investment path. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the King’s articles and videos, and I hope the brothers who have been following the King will return.
Click the link to watch the video:https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14N91Y1ELE/
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis Report (March 7, 2025)
1. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Policy Implemented: Short-term Bearish Realized, Long-term Logic in Doubt
Early this morning, the Trump administration officially signed an executive order announcing the establishment of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the funding source is limited to "seized Bitcoin," rather than the fiscal allocations or new purchases previously expected by the market. This policy implementation directly caused the BTC price to plummet from above $90,000 to around $84,000, before rebounding to the $87,000 range.
Short-term bearish logic: The market had previously speculated on the "strategic reserve" expectation for several months, with part of the price increase stemming from the imagination of large-scale BTC purchases by the U.S. However, after the policy explicitly excluded taxpayer funds, the unmet expectations triggered sell-offs. Additionally, the approximately $17 billion BTC currently held by the U.S. government (mainly from seized assets) is unlikely to form sustained purchasing power, which cannot support long-term price increases.
Long-term controversy: Although the policy grants BTC the status of a "strategic asset," which may prompt other countries to follow suit, experts question its actual significance. For instance, U.S. think tanks point out that the government holding BTC cannot realize profits and contradicts stability requirements. Trump's business style also raises market concerns that his policies may merely serve as election propaganda.
2. Trump’s Policy and Market Sentiment: Expectation Game Dominates the Market
Trump has recently frequently released cryptocurrency-friendly signals, but the feasibility of his policies is in doubt:
Funding source contradiction: To expand BTC reserves, it would require tax increases, bond issuance, or money printing, which conflicts with Trump's tax reduction promises and inflation control goals.
Political risk: Trump's policies are highly tied to personal inclinations; if his support fluctuates or he fails to be re-elected, the crypto market may face severe corrections. The current market has partially digested his statements, and caution is needed against the risk of "good news being fully priced in."
3. Technical Analysis: Bears Dominate Short-term, Focus on Key Moving Averages
BTC Resistance and Support: First resistance level at $89,200, second resistance level at $88,200; first support level at $86,300, second support level at $85,400. If it falls below the 200-day moving average (around $85,000) during the day, it may further decline.
Trading strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies (in the $89,200-$90,500 range), targeting $86,300-$85,400; if it quickly rises to around $95,000, one can chase the short, targeting a profit of 2,000-2,500 points.
4. Key Events Tonight: Non-Farm Data and Crypto Summit Dual Risks
Non-farm data: If employment data is stronger than expected, it may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, suppressing liquidity in risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). Conversely, weak data may boost market expectations for easing policies.
White House Crypto Summit: Trump may further elaborate on policy details, but the market's sensitivity to his "verbal good news" has decreased. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial measures, such as regulatory easing or signals of institutional entry.
5. Ethereum (ETH) Trends: Following BTC Fluctuations, On-chain Ecosystem Divergence
Price correlation: ETH has recently underperformed BTC, with a support level of $2,050 and a resistance level of $2,350. If BTC breaks key support, ETH may test $1,950.
Fundamental factors: Continuous capital outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs, combined with low on-chain Gas fees, reflect insufficient short-term demand. However, protocols with real yields in the Layer 2 ecosystem (such as MakerDAO and Aave) may serve as safe havens for funds.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Short-term caution: The market is in a "expectation correction" phase, with bears in control. It is recommended to avoid isolated positions and take profits on rebounds.
Long-term observation: Whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle restarts, the progress of Trump's policy implementation, and changes in institutional holdings (such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock) remain core variables.
Risk warning: Today's market volatility may intensify, and caution is needed against "spike" market movements triggered by non-farm data and summit statements.
Conclusion: The current market is in a sensitive period of policy expectations and technical battles. It is recommended to focus on short-term range trading and avoid heavy bets on one side. After the non-farm data and summit on Friday, the market may choose a direction, and close attention should be paid to the matching of trading volume and policy details.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recent market trends have been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the face of significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link later. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient in styles: mobile lock position strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
