Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night I didn't stay up to watch the conference live stream, and when I woke up this morning, sure enough, there was a chorus of complaints, so I had a rough idea of what happened. Trump raised everyone's expectations sky-high, but in the end, he didn't deliver any substantial good news, which is clearly negative.

To put it bluntly, at this stage, virtual currencies don't have such a powerful status, nor should they. Unless the U.S. first clarifies its gold reserves, re-evaluates them, and then uses the extra $800 billion in valuation to back the issuance of U.S. bonds to buy Bitcoin. If that happens, Bitcoin will definitely soar.

But in the long run, the U.S. credit will also go bankrupt; they are starting to pawn their assets. However, the decline of hegemony will eventually lead to even more outrageous issues, which is not surprising. Anyway, this is called a "rainbow fart conference," filled with nonsense and lacking originality. The market's reaction was quite direct, slapping faces left and right.

Once the non-farm payroll data was released last night, traders' bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on June 19 heated up again. The probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 19 jumped from 49.6% on Thursday to 56.8%. The hopes for rate cuts on March 20 and May 8 have basically cooled off. Let's hope we can smoothly get through May without being played by the market.

That said, since 2022, the market has never won against the Federal Reserve. Each time it has been pressed down, and its judgments have rarely aligned with those of the Fed. Now the market is guessing that the Fed will cut rates three times in 2025, and the dot plot from March will be a big test. However, Powell repeatedly says that the U.S. economy is fine, which has eased the market's concerns a bit. Indeed, the non-farm payroll data looks decent, even quite good.

The short positions I set up yesterday had a peak floating profit of over 4,000 points. But when I saw someone claiming that there would be a surge in the early hours, I could only laugh. Can't they understand the market logic? Events like crypto summits have their expectations digested two or three days in advance; the price has already risen.

At this stage, if you want to trade short-term steadily, you need to be precise about going long or short: if the Strategy drops more than 3% in the first two hours after the market opens, go short directly; it's fine to take a few thousand points down. Yesterday, the Strategy closed down in U.S. time, so today (before 6 PM) the crypto market is likely to be bearish.

If the drop exceeds 5%, go boldly short the next morning. If the drop is less than 3% and the volatility is small, and there's not much profit during the day, just take a break and wait to enter short after a rebound post-6 PM. Conversely, if the Strategy closes up 8-12% yesterday, even if it surged in the early hours, during the day (before 6 PM) you can only look to buy on a pullback. Simple and straightforward; ultra-short-term traders can play this way for now.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 87600

Second Resistance Level: 86600

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 85400

Second Support Level: 84500

Today's Suggestions:

Although the market generally maintains a bearish outlook, there will be short-term opportunities for a rebound due to previous low points and the rising trend line below. If the current rising trend line holds steady, the probability of reaching the first resistance is relatively high.

However, if the price breaks through the first resistance level and then lingers near that resistance line, forming a high point before retreating, the trend may be broken. The second resistance is an area where multiple moving averages overlap, so it can be considered strong resistance; it is advisable to switch to a short-term pullback strategy for trading.

Today, the first support can be set as an important support level, which is the previous low point area formed by the large bullish and bearish candles. If this line is broken, the bullish trend may also be broken, and at that time, we will shift to a bearish perspective.

Using the first support and the rising trend line as today's trading benchmarks, the current price is still within the support range, so it is advisable to look for rebound opportunities. If it breaks, then adjust the trading strategy.

Currently, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of a bearish outlook, as Trump's movements have caused significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices. Considering it is the weekend, I suggest taking profits quickly after gaining some, gradually accumulating returns.

3.8 Master’s Band Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Light positions in the 83350-84500 range, Target: 85400-86600

Short Entry Reference: Light positions in the 87600-88600 range, Target: 86600-85400

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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