The US stock market has entered a technical bear market, and the next two weeks are crucial!
On February 15, we issued a warning about the 'irrational exuberance' in the US stock market (as shown below) and provided multiple data examples, just around the peak of the Nasdaq. Today, the #QQQ ETF has fallen below the 200-day moving average for the first time in six months. As a long-term investor in the US stock market, this is one of the important indicators of a technical bear market.
Why are the next two weeks so important?
(As shown in Figure 2) From the data backtesting, if the #QQQ ETF falls below the 200-day moving average and continues to decline more than -3.5% in the following two weeks, it could signal a full-blown bear market.
If the decline in the next two weeks is less than -3.5%, the returns over the next year will be positive, which is relatively good.
Why does this phenomenon occur? Because the Nasdaq #QQQ is currently the third-largest ETF product in the US stock market, with an asset size exceeding $300 billion, second only to the S&P 500 ETF #VOO and #SPY. However, the Nasdaq #QQQ is a leader in this round of #AI market, covering more tech stocks and serving as an important indicator of whether the #AI bubble will burst. The 200-day moving average is the dividing line between bull and bear markets in the US stock market, and this point will become a contentious area for investors to either jump in or exit. Whether this position can hold is crucial as a psychological threshold for investment sentiment.
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