Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

A new week begins, and first, we need to talk about this week's market. This week is the week before the March 19th Japanese interest rate meeting and the March 20th 3 AM Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. The main players will definitely restrain their actions, and the market will start to shrink and fluctuate, likely holding back until the meetings to make some sharp moves up and down.

Moreover, from Wednesday to Friday evening, there will be information stimuli. In the short term, shorting at highs remains relatively prudent. Wednesday at 20:30: US February CPI data, Thursday at 21:30: US February Core PPI, Friday at 21:30: Initial value of 1-year inflation expectations.

It is very likely that new lows will be explored before and after the Federal Reserve meeting, and the second short-term bottom may emerge this way. If 79k is breached again, it is estimated that it could drop to around 73800. At that time, there will be opportunities for bottom fishing in the spot market and mid-term contracts, with a rebound likely occurring in the 12000-17000 point range.

Currently, some still say the bull market is ongoing because prices are still hovering at high levels. But everyone should think about how quickly it can drop! If it really breaks below 73k, then we will enter a large wave range of 68 to 49k, with a space of 110k, and 3 to 4 major wave adjustments will be completed.

In the future, adjustments below 60k are expected to take at least half a year, similar to 2022. If the weekly adjustment cycle is completed in the first half of this year, and then the second half immediately calls for a bull market, especially with some analysts foolishly claiming that Trump's administration was a bull market and that there was a bull market before interest rate hikes, then this halving cycle would be thrown into chaos.

Chasing shadows and harboring illusions. This year, it is best to short at highs honestly; even if there is a 25 basis point rate cut in June, it will only lead to a slight rebound. Turning around to become a bull? Difficult! Once it breaks below 73300, it will definitely enter a bear market. However, the bear market is your opportunity for a comeback!

This is the key to widening the wealth gap with other crypto enthusiasts; it depends on whether you can seize the deep bear market low to enter. The trend is already clear; how can there still be people shouting bull and discussing bear and bull every day?

The ball theory states that the deeper it falls, the higher it bounces. This round of correction has dropped 32000 points from 110000, with a maximum rebound of only 14000 points to 94950, resulting in a bounce rate of less than 0.50. After two weeks of sideways fluctuations, it will continue to decline.

Every round of profit ultimately relies on luck. Bulls and bears have their own cycles; going with the trend is the most important. Most of us retail investors have limited capabilities, and with the price of Bitcoin still so high, regular investment is unrealistic; the starting point is too high, and the average price will still be absurdly high in the end.

Although some altcoins are at the floor, they can still drop below ground level. Patience in waiting for the bottom of the bear market cycle is your capital for the next bull market rise. Old fans who have experienced the last bull market know that after the halving, it was a crazy bull market, with altcoins multiplying several times.

In this round, after the Bitcoin halving, a crazy bull market is basically unlikely; the best phase is the six months before the halving (2023.10-2024.3). Those blindly chasing shadows now are also unwilling to face reality. So you must admit that the market will change; if your thinking and understanding do not change with the market, just wait to be schooled by the market.

Now let's talk about Ethereum, some say Ethereum won't drop below 2000 because 2000 is a major integer level and won't easily break in the short term. But once it does break, it will be a major collapse. This is the second time it has touched this level; if it pushes through strongly, the space below 1600-1480 will open up.

Just like after breaking 3000, 2800 is a strong support; if it breaks, it will head straight for 2400 to 2380 because there is no support between 2800-2400. When it rises, it is smooth sailing, and when it falls, it is also smooth sailing, but the first drop will probe the bottom sharply, and after recovering, it will slowly oscillate downwards. Each support point will bounce a bit, giving you the illusion of a bull return and a bottom, while the market plays with you slowly.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 84600

Second Resistance Level: 83300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 81900

Second Support Level: 80600

Today's Suggestions:

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has shown a bullish divergence. In the short term, the lowest point below seems to have stabilized, so we should first focus on the possibility of a rebound and observe whether it can gradually break through the upper resistance.

If the first resistance level of 83300 is broken and the price stabilizes, there may still be opportunities to move upwards. Stabilization means support; if not, we need to be cautious of further declines.

The first support at 81900 has repeatedly pulled back after breaking, and it is expected to form a support zone here. But don't rush to act here; first, observe whether it can stabilize after breaking.

In the ultra-short term, it is best to wait for the price to hold above the rising trend line, and when the lowest point rises and then closes, that is when the average cost price for buying will be more appropriate.

3.10 Master's Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 83300-84600 range, Target: 81900-80600

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge of candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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