Metrics Ventures March Market Observation Guide for the Crypto Market Secondary Fund:
1/ This month's market has led many peers to declare the end of the bull market, but we firmly believe that Bitcoin's fluctuations here reaffirm our earlier view that this round of market activity is only halfway through. This judgment is primarily based on the correlation between Bitcoin and the performance of dollar-denominated risk assets, the current adjustments within the dollar system, the reinforcement of long-term logic, and the mild confirmation of the macro regulatory environment.
2/ The weakening of numerous altcoins, represented by Ethereum, is currently the main pessimistic support for the market. As always, we maintain our view since last April that Bitcoin is decoupling from other crypto assets. The true macro backdrop for a liquidity bull market has yet to arrive, and we should also be aware of the significant uncertainties in the next round of capital flow paths.
3/ Looking ahead, we believe that the high turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a phase of re-consolidation and accumulation. However, reflecting on the historical performance of core dollar assets like AAPL, we believe that Bitcoin's true key support lies around the 75,000 level, and there is no need for excessive concern before reaching this point.
Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends:
One of our core focus indicators for Bitcoin's current trend is its positioning as a risk asset within the dollar system. The validity of this observation stems from the fact that the transition of core assets within the dollar system has always been gradual, driven by macroeconomic, regulatory, and fundamental factors. Specifically, we have observed the following trend indicators remain robust:
① The Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq and other "Seven Sisters" assets still shows a significant advantage, and Bitcoin's resilience has once again been validated amidst a series of tariffs and other challenges;
② The loosening of on-chain chips is not severe, especially showing stronger support signals rather than collapse signals during negative releases, indicating that supply has not spiraled out of control;
③ From a regulatory perspective, the recent series of regulatory actions are, in our view, significant long-term positive foundations. The market's lack of understanding of the U.S. political and economic system is the main source of irrational volatility, which will not change the long-term positive trend.
Combining the recent indications from Bessent regarding the overall rhythm of dollar risk release, we firmly believe that the mid-term adjustment cycle that began in February presents an excellent opportunity for positioning over the next 15 months.
Finally, we believe that the industry's clearing phase has finally entered a rapid period. If the clearing phase can resonate with rapid and intense amplitude and emotion, it may coincide perfectly with the next macro liquidity bull market. However, we must remind that the capital flow paths in the next bull market are likely to be completely different from those in 2021, so existing so-called crypto assets need to be approached with extra caution from a long-term holding perspective.
Image: The Strength Relationship Between BTC and Nasdaq Over the Past 3 Years
About Us
Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven liquidity fund for the secondary market of crypto assets, led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, actively contributing to industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with influential figures in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, including media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.
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