We firmly believe that the fluctuations of Bitcoin here once again confirm our previous view that this round of market activity has only reached the halfway point.

Written by: Metrics Ventures

March Market Observation Overview by Metrics Ventures, a secondary fund in the crypto market:

1/ The market this month has led many peers to declare the end of the bull market, but we firmly believe that the fluctuations of Bitcoin here once again confirm our previous view that this round of market activity has only reached the halfway point. This judgment is mainly based on the fitting relationship between Bitcoin and the performance of dollar-denominated risk assets, the reasons for the current adjustments in the dollar system, the reinforcement of long-term logic, and the mild confirmation of the macro regulatory environment.

2/ The weakening of many altcoins represented by Ethereum is currently the main pessimistic support for the market. As always, we maintain our view since April last year that Bitcoin is decoupling from other crypto assets. The true macro-driven liquidity bull market has not yet arrived, and we should also note that there is significant uncertainty in the next round of capital flow paths.

3/ Looking ahead, we believe that the high turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a phase of reorganization and accumulation. However, looking back at the historical performance of core dollar assets like AAPL, we believe that Bitcoin's true key support is around the 75,000 level, and there is no need to worry too much before reaching this point.

Overview and Commentary on the Overall Market and Market Trends:

One of our core focus indicators for Bitcoin's current trend is its positioning as a risk asset within the dollar system. The effectiveness of this observation is due to the fact that the switching of core assets in the dollar system has always been gradual and driven by various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and fundamentals. Specifically, we have observed the following trend indicators that remain robust:

① The Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq and other "Seven Sisters" assets still shows a significant advantage, and the resilience of Bitcoin has once again been validated amidst a series of tariffs and other challenges;

② The loosening of on-chain chips is not severe, especially showing stronger support signals rather than collapse signals during negative releases, and supply has not uncontrollably increased;

③ From a regulatory perspective, the recent series of regulatory actions are, in our view, significant long-term positive foundations. The market's lack of understanding of the U.S. political and economic system is the main source of irrational volatility, which will not change the long-term positive trend.

Combining the recent indications from Bessent regarding the overall rhythm of dollar risk release, we firmly believe that the mid-term adjustment cycle that began in February presents an excellent opportunity for building positions over the next 15 months.

Finally, we believe that the industry's clearing phase has finally entered a rapid period. If the clearing period can resonate with rapid and intense amplitude and emotion, it may just coincide with the next macro liquidity bull market. However, we must remind that the capital flow paths in the next bull market are likely to be completely different from those in 2021, so existing so-called crypto assets need to be approached with extra caution from a long-term holding perspective.

Image: The Strength Relationship Between BTC and Nasdaq Over the Past 3 Years

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