Author: Crypto Stream

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

There is uncertainty in the market outlook, but certain potential scenarios are worth paying attention to.

The impact of catalysts varies across different time frames: some are immediate, while others may take months to manifest.

The following four scenarios are most likely to occur with Bitcoin:

Scenario 1: Catalyst-Free Drive and Slow Bleeding

The announcement of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve is significant, but the actual flow of funds behind it is moderate. Without new catalysts, as market enthusiasm wanes and funds shift to other assets, a gradual sell-off may occur.

• Time Frame: 1-8 weeks
• Impact Level: Low to moderate, but prolonged
• Key Signals: Decrease in ETF fund inflows, weakening of open interest, tightening liquidity

Scenario 2: Animal Spirits and Relief Rally

The Bitcoin strategic reserve may still trigger a short-term emotional rebound, attracting traditional finance to refocus on BTC. If MicroStrategy announces a stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin while the stock market rises, it could trigger a brief but sharp price surge.

• Time Frame: Next 7-14 days
• Impact Level: Moderate, but short-lived
• Key Signals: Surge in ETF fund inflows, MSTR stock issuance, rising stock market

PANews Note: Animal Spirits refer to the irrational impulses and group psychological effects of market participants; Relief Rally specifically refers to the market's reactive rise after the easing of significant risk events, which can be understood as a repetitive rebound.

Scenario 3: Increased Adoption Rate

Even if the strategic reserve does not immediately create positive fund flows, it still sends a strong signal:

1. Retail investors see progress in Bitcoin adoption
2. Institutions receive dovish signals regarding cryptocurrency, potentially accelerating their entry
3. Banks, insurance companies, and other countries may view this as an early signal to incorporate BTC into their balance sheets.

This scenario is not a short-term catalyst but increases the likelihood of large institutions entering the market.

• Time Frame: 3 months+
• Impact Level: Low probability of a single trigger, but disruptive
• Key Signals: Increased exposure from large institutions, entry of pension funds, accumulation by sovereign wealth funds

Scenario 4: Liquidity-Driven Gradual Rise

Some viewpoints suggest that the M2 money supply is the true driving force behind Bitcoin's price.

Currently, M2 has bottomed out and is rapidly rebounding; historical data shows that BTC prices typically lag liquidity trends by about 20 days.

If this logic holds, Bitcoin may enter a volatile upward trend in the coming weeks. However, skeptics point out that not all liquidity from the broad money supply (M2) will translate to risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, proponents argue that Bitcoin was originally created to absorb such liquidity, making this correlation of significant reference value in my view.

• Time Frame: 20-40 days
• Impact Level: Medium-term stable gradual rise
• Key Signals: Continued expansion of M2, reduction in Treasury General Account (TGA), inflow of stablecoin funds

PANews Note: M2 is an indicator of the money supply and is a fundamental concept in economics, serving as a monetary policy anchor, inflation warning signal, and economic vitality indicator, among other functions.

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