On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed the executive order "Establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Reserve." The next day, a White House crypto summit was held.
This marks another significant milestone in the crypto industry.
Bitcoin Enters the Arena: A New Chessboard for U.S. Strategic Reserves
We view this matter from the perspective of the U.S. government. The purpose of establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve is to strengthen and consolidate the U.S.'s dominant position in the global financial system.
The executive order states clearly: "The U.S. government currently holds a large amount of BTC but has not yet formulated relevant policies to leverage the strategic value of these BTC in the global financial system. Just as it is in the national interest to properly manage ownership and control of other resources, we must harness rather than restrict the potential of digital assets to promote national prosperity."
Historically, the U.S. has established several strategic reserves. For example:
Strategic Gold Reserve - In the 19th century, the U.S. adopted the gold standard, with the value of the dollar supported by gold reserves. In 1933, President Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, prohibiting private ownership of gold and mandating the confiscation of gold to be deposited in the Federal Reserve Bank; in 1934, the U.S. introduced the Gold Reserve Act, transferring gold reserves to the Treasury; in 1944, the U.S. established the Bretton Woods system, promising to exchange gold at $35 per ounce, making the dollar an international currency; it wasn't until 1971, during President Nixon's administration, that the dollar was decoupled from gold, leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the end of the gold standard.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve - In 1974, the U.S. reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries that international oil trade must be conducted in dollars, making the dollar the global reserve currency; in 1975, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, establishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which peaked at nearly 700 million barrels, but by 2024, reserves had dropped to 350 million barrels. On June 9, 2024, the oil dollar agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia officially expired, with Saudi Arabia announcing it would not renew.
Of course, there are also some strategic reserves with less far-reaching impacts, including uranium, rare earths, silver, and food.
Less than a year after the end of the petrodollar system, the U.S. establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve, indicating a strong consensus on Bitcoin as "digital gold."
Strategic Considerations for the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
1. Consolidation of Dollar Financial Hegemony
For a long time, the dollar has dominated the global financial system, serving as the primary settlement currency for international trade and financial transactions. However, with changes in the global economic landscape, the rise of emerging economies, and the reshaping of geopolitical dynamics, the dollar's financial hegemony is facing challenges.
Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital currency, has unique advantages in global circulation; its transactions are not controlled by traditional financial institutions or governments, allowing for rapid transactions and convenient circulation across geopolitical boundaries.
If the U.S. strengthens the connection between the dollar and Bitcoin and Crypto by establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, it could occupy a high ground in the Crypto field, integrating the Crypto market into the dollar settlement system, thereby consolidating the dollar's position in international financial transactions. This would undoubtedly be a strong defense of its dollar financial hegemony in the new financial era.
As Trump mentioned at the White House crypto summit, establishing a Bitcoin reserve is akin to creating a "virtual Fort Knox" (Fort Knox is a U.S. base for storing national gold reserves). He also noted that congressional legislators are pushing for legislation to clarify the regulation of dollar stablecoins and the digital asset market, and he would ensure the long-term stability of the dollar's position.
The chess pieces have been placed, and the momentum has been established. From a top-level design perspective, this may be the first public announcement of such an idea. However, U.S. companies have already laid out key tracks in the Crypto field: in asset issuance—despite industry criticism regarding the inability to achieve trustlessness in the RWA tokenization process, Franklin Templeton has become the largest traditional financial institution issuing RWA for U.S. Treasury bonds; in asset securitization—traditional financial institutions led by BlackRock have issued U.S. BTC spot ETFs with total assets under management exceeding $100 billion; in asset trading and custody—NASDAQ-listed Coinbase is a major custodian for ETFs.
What is currently lacking is a clear regulatory framework to protect the crypto industry from similar "unclear boundaries of suppression by the Biden administration," as well as the cross, chaotic, and ambiguous regulation from multiple government departments.
2. A Tool Against Inflation
Theoretically, establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve can hedge against inflation to some extent.
According to World Bank data, the M2 curve for the U.S. from 1960 to the present is shown in the following chart:
The scale of U.S. national debt is shown in the following chart:
The total federal government debt of the U.S. has surpassed $36 trillion, reaching a historic high. Moreover, the ratio of U.S. federal government debt to GDP has been rising in recent years, reflecting that the growth rate of debt exceeds that of economic growth. Due to the expansion of debt and the current high-interest rate environment, the interest expenditure of the U.S. federal government is expected to reach about $882 billion in 2024, creating a significant fiscal burden.
Bitcoin is considered "digital gold" and can serve as a potential "tool" against inflation and to address national debt issues. Governments worldwide tend to stimulate the economy by increasing the money supply, leading to currency devaluation and inflation. Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it an ideal asset for resisting inflation.
The reasons prompting the U.S. government to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve are multifaceted. In addition to consolidating the dollar's hegemonic position and combating inflation, from the perspective of financial innovation, Bitcoin and blockchain present new development opportunities for the financial industry; from the standpoint of global financial competition, as mentioned in this executive order, "the country that first establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve will gain a strategic advantage"; from the perspective of U.S. authorities' interests, Trump is fulfilling a campaign promise, and the influence of U.S. crypto-related interest groups has significantly increased in this Trump administration, impacting government decision-making.
Far-reaching Impact on the Crypto Market
Trump's Executive Order Falls Short of Market Expectations
Key points in this executive order include:
The Secretary of the Treasury shall establish an office responsible for managing and controlling the custodial account of the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" (SBR), with reserve funds sourced from BTC seized in criminal or civil cases. BTC deposited into the SBR shall not be sold.
The Treasury Department shall establish an office responsible for managing and controlling the custodial account of the "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve," with reserve funds sourced from all digital assets held by the Treasury Department, excluding BTC. The Treasury shall formulate a strategy for the responsible management of the U.S. digital asset reserve (it does not state that they cannot be sold).
The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall devise strategies to acquire additional government BTC without increasing the budget or imposing additional costs on U.S. taxpayers. (How to acquire more BTC? You figure it out…)
The approximately 200,000 BTC currently held by the U.S. government were seized from criminal or civil cases. Trump has tasked the Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary with developing strategies to "increase Bitcoin reserves without incurring any costs to taxpayers."
The plan outlined in this executive order did not meet market expectations, primarily because the community was tantalized by another federal-level bill—the "Bitcoin Act" proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis (which suggested that the U.S. Treasury purchase 1 million BTC over five years and hold them for 20 years), which has already been rejected.
Federal-Level Crypto-Related Bills Progressing with Neutral Market Impact
In the U.S., there is a distinction between presidential executive orders (EO) and congressional legislation, and unfortunately, recent federal-level Bitcoin-related bills have not successfully passed. Currently, there are three crypto-related bills progressing at the federal level:
- H.R.148: Keep Your Coins Act of 2025
- S394: GENIUS Act of 2025
- HRes111: Expressing support for blockchain technology and digital assets.
Among these, HRes111 is somewhat trivial and likely to fail; the Keep Your Coins Act (H.R.148) proposes to protect individuals' rights to self-custody of crypto assets; the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation in U.S. Stablecoins) Act is a regulatory bill for dollar stablecoins, setting licensing and reserve requirements for issuers of dollar stablecoins.
Trump expressed at the White House crypto summit that he hopes to have the dollar stablecoin innovation bill (GENIUS Act) on his desk for signing before the August recess. The community may not have high expectations for this bill, as it is difficult to see any substantial benefits.
State-Level Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bills May Be Worth Watching
In addition to federal-level legislation, some state governments are actively promoting the legislative process for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, including Arizona, Texas, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma. However, five states have already rejected such proposals, including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.
The process for state governments in the U.S. to establish strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation generally requires: first, state legislators or committees draft and submit the bill to the state legislature; then, it goes through voting in both the House and Senate of the state legislature; finally, if both chambers of the state legislature approve, it is sent to the governor for signature.
The following image shows the legislative process for the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill currently underway in Arizona:
The content of each state's strategic Bitcoin reserve bill varies. For example, Oklahoma proposes to allow the state government to invest 10% of public funds in Bitcoin or any digital asset with a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion; Kentucky proposes to invest up to 10% of remaining cash in cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization exceeding $750 billion and stablecoins that have received appropriate regulatory approval.
Overall, Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order is likely to be a long-term positive development. From a policy perspective, as long as Trump's executive order does not change frequently, the next few years will at least see a friendly policy environment. From a funding perspective, although there is no federal plan to increase holdings of one million BTC, if state proposals are passed, there could be real investments. From a market supply and demand perspective, on the supply side, the Bitcoin seized by the U.S. government will be deposited into the strategic Bitcoin reserve and cannot be sold, reducing the selling pressure of Bitcoin in the market; on the demand side, the U.S. government's decision to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve may attract more investors' interest in Bitcoin, including some traditional financial institutions and large enterprises, which could alleviate their concerns about engaging in crypto business and may even trigger more countries to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Conclusion
To quote Michael Saylor: History will remember the moment the U.S. established its strategic Bitcoin reserve—this is a turning point in the financial and geopolitical landscape of the 21st century.
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