Author: Babywhale, Techub News
This morning, Bitcoin once again touched the $80,000 mark, rebounding to above $82,500 at the time of writing. The weekend's decline also left a significant gap on the CME Bitcoin futures chart, similar to last week.
According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, approximately $621 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours. Among these, Bitcoin contracts accounted for about $240 million, Ethereum contracts for $108 million, XRP contracts for about $30 million, and SOL contracts for over $26 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, with over $30 million being liquidated.
Reserve policy falls short of expectations, macro uncertainty rises rapidly
The previously highly anticipated Bitcoin reserve plan has brought almost no good news recently.
On one hand, the Bitcoin reserve bill signed by Trump clarified that the bulk of the reserves would come from the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins held by the U.S. government under previous policies, and any additional purchases of Bitcoin would need to be done in a "budget-neutral" manner, meaning that even if additional Bitcoin is purchased, it cannot increase the fiscal burden. Speculation has arisen that the government may choose to sell some assets to purchase additional Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Bank stated that the U.S. government could choose to sell gold to buy Bitcoin, but this was later denied by "crypto czar" David Sacks. In my view, the additional purchase of Bitcoin is an extremely challenging action for the U.S. government, which has already cut a significant amount of unnecessary budget while presenting itself as a savior. It is hard to convince people that buying a high-risk asset that can fluctuate more than 10% in a single day is a reasonable move. While Bitcoin is well-known within the industry, not everyone in the general public recognizes crypto assets.
In addition to the national-level Bitcoin reserves not being as aggressively purchased as many optimists predicted, the progress of state-level Bitcoin reserve bills has also faced setbacks.
As of now, several states, including Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, have rejected Bitcoin reserve bills. Although Utah passed a bill named "Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendment" (HB230), it removed the provision that authorized the state treasurer to invest in Bitcoin.
Of course, there are still many states where related bills are on the verge of passing, but we can draw some conclusions from the current situation: the "national buying spree" that many practitioners anticipated is unlikely to happen, and lawmakers are maintaining a clear-headed approach. Using real money to buy high-risk assets is indeed difficult to justify in the short term.
On the macro front, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their growth rate forecasts for U.S. GDP in 2025, with the former reducing its growth prediction from 1.9% to 1.5%, and the latter lowering it from 2.2% to 1.7%, while increasing the probability of an economic recession from 15% to 20%.
In fact, the efforts made by Trump, including raising tariffs and cutting unnecessary spending, are essentially beneficial for the sustainable development of the U.S. in the long run, but the short-term impacts, such as rising inflation, increasing unemployment rates, and weakening dollar hegemony, are unavoidable. In my view, the current financial market is facing a very delicate situation: on one hand, inflation caused by tariffs may further impact the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at some point; on the other hand, if the economy is resilient enough, a hasty rate cut may further drive up inflation.
As a result, Trump's proud "sunshine strategy" may lead to an intractable vicious cycle, which could be a major reason analysts predict a recession in the U.S. I have an unfounded guess that many wealthy individuals in the world are actually severely out of touch with the lives of ordinary people, and their perception of short-term "growing pains" may ruin the lives of a significant portion of the lower class. This "why not eat meat" mentality is also a significant source of uncertainty.
For risk assets, certain bad news can be better than uncertainty. The past year has seen gold, U.S. stocks, and the dollar all rise together, which is the most obvious sign of capital seeking certainty. The recent decline in U.S. stocks and the dollar indicates that the last safe haven in the risk market, the U.S., no longer possesses certainty, and the rise of Hong Kong and A-shares follows the same logic. However, given that Bitcoin has, to some extent, become part of U.S. stocks after the launch of the spot ETF, I still need to remind investors to be prepared for a potential tsunami caused by the flapping of a butterfly's wings, at least in the first half of this year.
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