🚨 Trump's put options have a bottomless strike price. Is this time really different? Is Trump really not planning to save the market? —

During Trump's 1.0 era: When the U.S. stock market plummeted due to tariffs, Trump canceled the threat of tariffs on Mexico.

During Trump's 2.0 era: When the U.S. stock market plummeted due to tariffs, Trump escalated the tariff war against Canada overnight.

What is Trump's put option?

A simple example —

You live in a neighborhood where housing prices fluctuate. One day, a particularly loud security captain arrives, patrolling every day while holding a megaphone, shouting: "If housing prices dare to drop, I will immediately build an amusement park, give out red envelopes, and drive away the troublemakers!"

Although this person speaks exaggeratedly, the amazing thing is that whenever housing prices are about to drop, he always manages to create some commotion that causes prices to rebound.

This is Trump's put option; it is not a real financial product but a metaphor — whenever the market crashes, Trump may try to "support" the market by making statements (such as signaling a de-escalation of the trade war), implementing policy stimuli (like tax cuts), or pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

But the problem is that Wall Street has now realized that Trump may not be very reliable; he might praise Apple in the morning and criticize Cook in the afternoon, and his price support promises could just be a blank check.

Today's CPI data is worth paying attention to; the trigger point for this policy shift may be far lower than we expect!

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