Recently, the market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin prices falling back and bearish sentiment dominating. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, released by the U.S. on March 12, has attracted widespread attention and directly impacts the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

Market Background: CPI Data and Federal Reserve Policy Trends

Interpretation of February CPI Data

The data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on March 12 shows that the February CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.1%, but lower than January's 3.3%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) rose by 3.8% year-on-year, marking a new low since 2021.

Breaking it down:

• Housing costs remain the main driver of inflation, accounting for over 60% of the overall increase.
• Price changes for food and energy are relatively mild, with energy prices decreasing year-on-year, although gasoline prices have rebounded.
• Service prices continue to show strong growth, indicating persistent inflation.

Impact of CPI Data on Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

Despite the core CPI hitting a four-year low, the market has not significantly increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. On the contrary, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped from 80% to around 55%, indicating that investors are beginning to adjust their expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

Currently, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma:

If it cuts rates too early, it may lead to a resurgence of inflation, contradicting its long-term target of 2%. If it maintains high rates for too long, it could suppress economic growth and increase market volatility.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields have risen, and the dollar index has rebounded, creating short-term pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis

Candlestick Pattern: Still in a Downward Channel in the Short Term

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin remains in a downward trend channel, with multiple highs and lows decreasing sequentially: $76,000 is the current important support level; if it breaks below, it may further test $72,000. The key resistance levels above are $82,000-$85,000; if the price breaks through this area, it may trigger a short-term rebound. Yesterday's candlestick showed a long lower shadow, indicating some buying strength in the market, but the rebound momentum is limited.

Capital Flow: Bears in Control

From the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator: OBV continues to decline, indicating capital outflow from the market, with weak buying pressure in the short term.

MAOBV (Moving Average of OBV) is also trending downwards, suggesting a bearish market sentiment. However, around $76,000, some capital shows signs of buying on dips, indicating that support still exists.

Key Technical Indicators

Moving Average System (MA)

In the short term, MA5, MA10, and MA30 are in a bearish arrangement, with prices running below the moving averages, indicating that the market is still in an adjustment phase. The long-term MA120 remains upward, but after the price broke below, it has not been able to regain stability, suggesting short-term market pressure.

MACD (Trend Momentum)

MACD is in a death cross state, with both the DIF line and DEA line below the zero axis, and the red momentum bars are decreasing but have not turned green. This indicates that market momentum is still bearish, but there is a need for short-term correction.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI is currently around 44.75, in a weak range but has not entered the oversold area (below 30). This indicates that the market is still in a sluggish state, with insufficient momentum for a short-term rebound.

KDJ (Short-term Overbought/Oversold)

KDJ shows a K value of 32.44, a D value of 41.79, and a J value that has significantly dropped, approaching the oversold area. However, a golden cross has not yet formed, indicating that short-term fluctuations may continue.

Volume and Market Depth (VPVR)

From the right-side VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range), the dense trading area is between $84,000 and $96,000, indicating strong resistance in this area. The current dense trading area is between $78,000 and $82,000, suggesting that this range is a short-term support zone.

Today's Price Prediction

• Short-term Fluctuation and Correction: Prices may fluctuate in the $76,000-$82,000 range, with strong short-term support, but the upside potential is limited.
• If it breaks below $76,000: It may further test the range between $72,000 and $74,000.
• If it breaks above $82,000: It may test resistance near $85,000, but the probability of breaking through is low, and capital flow still needs to be monitored.

Conclusion

• Short-term Trend: Affected by CPI data and Federal Reserve policy, Bitcoin is still in a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, likely to fluctuate in the $76,000-$82,000 range today.
• Mid-term Outlook: If expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut improve, Bitcoin may usher in a new round of increases, requiring attention to market capital flows.
• Long-term Trend: Institutional buying, ETF capital inflows, and Bitcoin strategic reserves may become the core driving forces for Bitcoin's long-term rise.

Investors should remain cautious in the current market environment, monitor the key support at $76,000, avoid chasing highs, and pay attention to changes in macro policies and market capital flows.

Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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