In the past week, the market has been discussing the GDPNow forecast for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2025, which was initially -2.8% (later adjusted to -2.4%). Without delving too much into theoretical content, the main reason is the weight of nonmonetary gold in GDPNow. In January, nearly 60% of the widening U.S. trade deficit was due to imports of nonmonetary gold, and the expansion of the trade deficit negatively impacts GDP calculations.

Net Exports = Exports - Imports; an increase in imports will lower GDP.

Nonmonetary gold refers to gold that is not part of official reserves and is not used for monetary purposes, but rather for commercial, industrial, investment, or jewelry purposes. It is typically bought and sold by private enterprises, investors, mining companies, manufacturers, and jewelers.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) does not separately exclude gold when calculating GDP; instead, it includes gold in the net exports subcategory. In simpler terms, the import of nonmonetary gold has led to a significant increase in the trade deficit.

If the impact of nonmonetary gold is removed, the latest model provided by GDPNow is actually 0.4%, indicating a slight increase in the U.S. economy.

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