Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff has issued a stark warning about bitcoin’s future, suggesting that a prolonged Nasdaq downturn could severely impact the cryptocurrency’s price. Schiff highlighted current market conditions in a post on social media platform X on March 16, asserting:

The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, bitcoin will be about $65K.

However, he cautioned that bear markets typically bring much larger declines. “If the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger,” he wrote, referencing the Dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash as past examples of severe market downturns.

The economist projected that if the Nasdaq experiences a substantial decline, bitcoin could face an even steeper collapse. “If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate bitcoin’s collapse to much lower levels,” the gold bug stressed. He also pointed out that gold has moved inversely to the Nasdaq, rising 13% since the Nasdaq’s peak in December 2023. He suggested that if this trend continues and the stock market plunges, gold could surpass $3,800, particularly if the U.S. dollar weakens.

Schiff has long positioned gold as a superior hedge against economic uncertainty, arguing that bitcoin lacks the same historical resilience. He also predicted that such a divergence between gold and bitcoin would further damage bitcoin’s credibility. “Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any bitcoin in a strategic reserve,” he claimed. He further warned that investors would likely dump their bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, triggering widespread selling. Schiff wrote:

There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for MSTR [Microstrategy] to sell enough bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.

However, Schiff admitted that his explanation was not a “serious analysis.” He clarified: “It’s not meant to be. Just pointing something out. If the NASDAQ drops 20%, I expect bitcoin to be lower than $65K.”

Despite the downturn, many bitcoin price predictions remain optimistic, driven by industry leaders and regulatory developments. Tim Draper maintains his $250,000 forecast for 2025, while Tom Lee expects bitcoin to be the year’s top-performing asset. Standard Chartered projects a $500,000 valuation, and Michael Saylor envisions $13 million by 2045. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and Abra CEO Bill Barhydt recently highlighted bitcoin’s adoption and resilience. The White House Crypto Summit reinforced market confidence, with President Trump pledging support and proposing a strategic bitcoin reserve, signaling a shift toward favorable regulation.

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