Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Today, let's start the article by discussing some macro aspects of interest rate hikes. It is known that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates until June 19 at the earliest, and from January to June, it will basically be a volatile market, so there aren't any substantial positive news for the market.

However, Japan is likely to raise interest rates again in May and June, which could lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin by about 15 to 17k. Everyone can look back at the second interest rate hike in Japan at the end of January, when the crypto market took a big hit, with Ethereum plunging 1200 points in a single day, and the market was filled with despair.

The impact of Japan's interest rate hike is indeed too significant, so in May and June, we need to be particularly cautious and not rush in blindly, or we might get hurt again.

Additionally, the recent short-term rise is actually quite limited and unstable; this is called an ineffective rebound, specifically designed for contract players to short at highs.

During this period, the bulls are basically struggling to survive in a tight spot, walking on thin ice, and only making decent profits when trying to catch a rebound during a sharp decline. If Japan raises interest rates for the third time in May, the crypto market might experience another significant drop like on May 11 or May 19.

However, a deep squat can stimulate capital flow, and later, riding on the Federal Reserve's rate cut, it is estimated that it could reach 107k, and we will see if it can break the previous high and create a new high. So, in the first half of the year, there is some hope for a rate cut in June; otherwise, it will mostly be a volatile market, which is quite exhausting.

Moreover, there is a monetary policy meeting in Japan this Wednesday, and it is expected to remain unchanged, but the market usually reacts in advance, so there might be a small dip tonight. The next interest rate hike could be on May 1, so we need to be prepared for a major shake-up. After Japan's interest rate hike, there might be a sharp drop, followed by a slow recovery over a month, and once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, we could see a deep V shape on the weekly chart.

Master has always recognized this viewpoint: every bull market is like this; the higher it rises, the harder it falls. Many people can still make some money during bear markets or when transitioning between bear and bull markets, but in a bull market, they end up losing everything.

Why? Because chasing highs without risk control can lead to a total wipeout in a single waterfall drop. Bull markets rely entirely on capital support; the higher the price, the more money is needed to push it up. Why did Bitcoin rise so sharply last year? It increased by 40,000 dollars in five months because the starting point was only 27.6k.

Later, it reached 73.6k, and the demand for capital increased as it went higher. If capital withdraws midway or is diverted by other negative news, it will immediately plummet. So, since the beginning of this year, we have entered a slow bull phase, with March peaking at 73k, followed by a correction to a low of 49k, a drop of 32%, and it took a full 6 to 7 months to climb back. You can see how difficult this rise is!

Yesterday, Master placed a short order at 84.8k, and today the morning session started with a profit of at least a thousand points. So, for wave trading, just focus on shorting at the high points suggested by Master; there has been no loss from shorting at highs for so long, while low longs occasionally get stopped out. In short, brothers need to take it easy; good risk control is the key!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 83700

Second Resistance Level: 84800

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 82300

Second Support Level: 80600

Today's Suggestions:

Since yesterday's trend breakthrough did not continue, the support and resistance levels remain consistent with yesterday. The one-hour descending trend line from yesterday has been broken, but after the price retested the second resistance level at 84.8K, it formed a large bearish candle within the adjustment range and has now returned to a downtrend.

At the time of trend conversion, it is necessary to confirm whether there will be an appropriate adjustment after the breakthrough. In situations like this, where adjustments occur through large bearish candles, the probability of trend conversion failure is relatively high.

If the first resistance level coinciding with the descending trend line is broken again, the bullish outlook will significantly increase, but before the breakthrough, it is essential to monitor whether the price's lows are rising before expecting a retest.

Currently, 82.3K serves as the first support level and is also an important short-term support line. If it is broken, the bears may accelerate, and it is also advisable to pay attention to the 200-day moving average trend.

The current maximum downside target is 80.6K; if it does not continue to drop, the bullish outlook can be maintained. Additionally, attention can be given to the 82-82.3K range; if this range is broken, a daily level N-shaped downward trend may form.

3.18 Master Wave Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Not Applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 84800-86000 range, Target: 83700-82300

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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