Trading Moment: There is a supply gap in the Bitcoin range of 70,000 to 80,000, and the FOMC interest rate decision has become the market focus.

Trading Moment: Bitcoin Supply Gap in the 70,000-80,000 Range, FOMC Rate Decision Becomes Market Focus

1. Market Observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Yesterday, YZi Labs announced an investment in Plume Network, driving a rebound in the RWA sector. QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that despite ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, demonstrating strong resilience. Standard Chartered Bank stated that if Trump's proposed "crypto reserve" plan is successfully implemented by 2025, combined with the Bitcoin halving effect, it could drive Bitcoin prices to soar to $500,000.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, expecting prices to show a bearish or sideways trend for 6-12 months, pointing out that every on-chain indicator signals the arrival of a bear market. Meanwhile, LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger holds a cautious outlook on the market, warning that global trade tensions and concerns over a slowing U.S. economy may lead to continued adjustments in U.S. stocks, dragging Bitcoin down to the $73,000-$74,000 range. In contrast, Coinbase Institutional research director David Duong is relatively optimistic, believing that the current market sell-off is mainly influenced by macro factors and liquidity, and expects conditions to improve in the next quarter. He specifically noted that as bank reserve levels approach 10-11% of GDP, the Federal Reserve may adjust its quantitative tightening (QT) plan to maintain financial stability, which would support asset prices.

From a technical perspective, Glassnode data shows a significant supply gap for Bitcoin in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, where trading time is short, and open interest is low, indicating weak support. Currently, about 20% of Bitcoin supply is in a loss state, with the holding cost above the current price of $83,000. If the $80,000 support level is breached, $73,000 will become a key support level.

In the Ethereum market, Standard Chartered Bank recently significantly lowered its ETH price forecast for the end of 2025 from $10,000 to $4,000. This adjustment mainly considers factors such as the weakening of ETH's market value due to Layer 2 scaling solutions and the potential continued decline of the ETH/BTC ratio. Notably, the Ethereum Foundation is actively listening to community feedback and exploring operational changes to adapt to market changes.

In terms of regulation and policy, QCP Capital stated that last week's U.S. CPI data, which was lower than expected, provided temporary relief, but the likelihood of the Federal Reserve turning dovish remains limited amid ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, but under policy uncertainty, market volatility may remain high.

Macquarie Bank's latest report warns of the overall market, pointing out that Trump's economic policies could trigger a significant adjustment in the stock market. Unless trade policies shift to a more moderate stance and spending is cut, U.S. real consumer spending may significantly slow down. Currently, the S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 8% from last month's peak, and the Nasdaq index has retraced nearly 12% from its December peak last year. Against this backdrop, the market is closely watching the results of this week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, especially regarding potential adjustments to the quantitative tightening plan, which could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

2. Key Data (as of March 18, 13:30 HKT)

Bitcoin: $82,671.90 (Year-to-date -11.31%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $24.471 billion
Ethereum: $1,894.96 (Year-to-date -42.82%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $11.089 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 34 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.4 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.5%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, UXLINK, AUCTION, BTC, CARV
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9681
Sector Performance: RWA sector up 9%, BSC ecosystem up 2.68%
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 101,237 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $182 million, including $44.73 million in BTC and $29.98 million in ETH.