Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (As of Current Period)

In the past week, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has shown a typical converging oscillation pattern, with the price center maintaining a narrow fluctuation in the range of 82,000-85,000, and the amplitude narrowing to 3.6%, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears at a critical level. Ethereum (ETH/USDT) has similarly exhibited oscillation characteristics, with the trading range tightening to 1,860-1,950, and the volatility for the week being less than 5%, as the market overall enters a phase of momentum accumulation.

Technical Structure Analysis

1. Trend Positioning:

Bitcoin: On the 4-hour level, it is still in a correction cycle. After the price retraced more than 20% from its historical high, it has built a platform between the Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% (around 82,000) and 50% (85,000), forming a preliminary bottom. The daily Bollinger Bands are showing a clear downward opening that is beginning to close, while the weekly K-line has touched the lower Bollinger Band, showing significant strong support with a rebound and closing performance, indicating that a relatively wide oscillation range will appear in the short term, with a potential upward rebound to the middle Bollinger Band range of 91,000-95,000, before forming another oscillation range.

Ethereum: The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour level have clearly closed, with a very stable box oscillation. The support at 1,860 and resistance at 1,950 form the oscillation boundaries. The daily Bollinger Bands are still opening downward, and the K-line is in a bottom oscillation without clear indicator signals. However, from the weekly Bollinger Bands, it is evident that it is currently at the bottom of the oscillation range for nearly a year, just reaching the lower Bollinger Band and facing resistance.

2. Key Thresholds:

BTC: A breakthrough above 85,500 is needed to confirm the resumption of bullish momentum. If it falls below 80,000 (recent low + psychological level), it may trigger a second bottom test.

ETH: 1,950 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. A breakthrough here is expected to test the 2,000 round number; the lower range of 1,850-1,860 serves as a dense trading area support, and a break could lead to a drop to 1,780 (previous low).

Trading Strategy Suggestions

Range trading strategy: In the short term, one can execute high sell and low buy based on the oscillation boundaries, with BTC building long positions in batches in the 82,000-83,500 area, targeting 84,800-85,200; if it rebounds above 85,000, consider setting up short positions based on volume. For ETH, similarly, try light long positions in the 1,860-1,880 range, taking profits in batches at 1,930-1,950, and set stop losses for reverse breakthroughs.

Risk control points: Position control should be at 10%-15%, with BTC stop loss reference outside the range of 1.5%, and ETH stop loss at 1.8%. Be cautious of false signals during breakout trends, and it is recommended to confirm direction with increased trading volume (over 30% above the daily average) and the hourly K-line entity.

Conclusion

The current market is on the eve of a trend change, maintaining an oscillation strategy in the short term but needing to increase the weight of breakout plans. Conservative investors may wait for BTC to break above 85,500 or for ETH to stabilize above 1,980 before following the trend, while aggressive traders must strictly adhere to range discipline to guard against the risk of false breakouts leading to both long and short losses.

(Note: The above analysis is based on technical structure deduction; actual trading should be adjusted according to real-time data and personal risk preferences.)

The publication of this article has a time lag, and market conditions change rapidly. The above suggestions are for reference only, and risks are borne by the reader! The market changes daily, and what I can do is use my years of practical experience to provide some slight assistance, guiding your investment decisions and management towards the right direction. Meeting is fate; if you have any doubts in the crypto space, you can follow the public account --- Big Bear, to keep abreast of real-time trends and strategies, which I believe will be helpful to you.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。