Today we won't analyze the market, but let's talk about tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision~

Powell really can't sit still this time! At 2 AM on March 20 (tonight, Singapore time), the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to arrive, and the market and investors are wide-eyed waiting to see the show. In this decision, Powell has to find a way out under the triple pressure of economic crisis, political pressure, and internal disputes, making it a hellish challenge.

First, let's talk about the economy, which is in big trouble. Trump's tariff policy is like a ticking time bomb; prices may rise, but economic growth could hit the brakes, leading to "stagflation"—prices rise without negotiation, and life gets harder. Cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy could lead to uncontrollable inflation; not cutting could mean growth can't hold up. Experts bluntly state: "Cutting rates might also be because the economy is getting worse." The painful lesson from misjudging "temporary inflation" back in the day means Powell has to calculate even his breathing!

Next, on the political front, the Trump administration is keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve. They claim not to interfere with interest rates, but behind the scenes, they are taking action! New executive orders and judicial moves are clearly aimed at undermining the Fed's independence. Powell has to deal with external pressure while also stabilizing the internal "hawk-dove battle." The policy committee is on the verge of splitting into a "red-blue battle," with some calling for rate cuts and others insisting on high rates, making coordination more difficult than climbing to the sky.

On the market side, things are even more lively. The stock market sell-off hasn't stopped, and companies are complaining; Walmart and Delta Airlines have both said tariffs are hurting them badly, and profit warnings are sounding. However, if the Federal Reserve sends some "dovish" signals this time, the market might catch a breath; if they continue to hold firm on tightening, there could be even sharper declines.

Surveys show that concerns about an economic recession are rising sharply, with the probability jumping from 23% to 36%, and GDP forecasts being cut to 1.7%. Tariffs have replaced inflation as the number one threat. But most people are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year, after all, the impact of tariffs might just be temporary. The question is, does Powell dare to take that bet? If he cuts too early and Trump removes tariffs, he will be left in an awkward position; if he doesn't cut and the economy worsens, he will also take the blame.

As of the time of writing, the interest rate market is betting on a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in March, and an 82.8% probability that rates will remain unchanged in May, although JPMorgan is firmly betting on a rate cut in May, while the market is currently mainly speculating on rate cut expectations for June. Tonight, Powell's speech may have the following three scenarios:

• Closely following the "data-dependent" rhetoric (a lifeline for survival)
• Cautiously shifting blame to "tariff inflation" (redirecting fire towards Trump)
• Revealing economic expectations subtly (hints of rate cuts hidden here)

Overall, there is no suspense in this interest rate decision, and it is expected not to have much impact on Bitcoin. The key is still Powell's attitude; if he leans hawkish, BTC may fall below the $80,000 mark, while if he releases dovish signals, Bitcoin could potentially challenge the $85,000 resistance level again!

In this decision, Powell not only has to calculate the economic accounts but also play the political balancing act. The market is holding its breath: will he ease up for a rate cut, or will he hold firm? The answer will be revealed tonight, so please stay tuned to AiCoin news and wait and see!

Federal Reserve interest rate data: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/data

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