First, as expected, Japan did not adjust interest rates in March. Secondly, Nick's recent remarks almost represent the Federal Reserve's viewpoint at this moment. The Federal Reserve does not plan to start cutting interest rates within the next six months, that is, before the end of the third quarter (September). This reveals three implications:
The Federal Reserve indeed does not believe a recession will occur. Therefore, it maintains a high interest rate state to reduce inflation through interest rate adjustments.
The Federal Reserve has considered the possibility of a recession, but due to Trump's tariff policy, tariffs may increase inflation, so the Federal Reserve needs to observe more data before making a decision.
The probability of cutting interest rates three times in 2025 will be very low. In the fourth quarter, there are only two regular meetings in November and December, making the probability of consecutive rate cuts quite significant.
Overall, this is a relatively hawkish approach. The market's expectation of the first rate cut in June is basically off the table unless a black swan event occurs; otherwise, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates. The key point is that the Federal Reserve has not made a statement regarding balance sheet reduction, which is still something to anticipate.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
