Master Discusses Hot Topics:

As expected by the market, Japan has not raised interest rates, maintaining them at 0.5%. The Master speculates that they might want to wait until May or June, which would be more reliable before the U.S. lowers rates.

Everyone can think about it: they raised rates once in August, again in January, and then just two months later in March seems a bit too hasty. If they do it in May or June, it would be a four-month interval, just right, and it could also hedge against the news of the U.S. rate cut. One must say that the Japanese are quite clever.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting at 2 AM tomorrow, and Powell will speak at 2:30 AM, so the market tonight until the early morning will definitely fluctuate. Personally, the Master leans towards a downward push first, then a rise, followed by another downward probe.

If one must attribute the recent decline to news, the main reason is that the market is bracing for the interest rate meeting at 2 AM on the 20th. Although some people are quite optimistic, believing the Federal Reserve can cut rates three times this year, or even pause or completely stop the balance sheet reduction.

But there are also those who think Powell won't be that generous, and rate cuts might be delayed, not to mention the balance sheet reduction. So at critical times, everyone runs to seek safety, and a drop is not surprising.

To put it bluntly, guessing today is useless; the focus is on the meeting after midnight, where all the drama will unfold. However, the Master wants to say that despite the current poor market conditions, I actually think it's easier to navigate than the one-sided surge from two years ago. To be honest, there are actually more opportunities during such times.

Recent articles seem to be discussing Bitcoin, and the medium to long-term trend has been mentioned more than once. If anyone has forgotten, they can refer back to the Master's previous articles for clarity.

So today, let's not talk about Bitcoin and instead discuss Ethereum. Speaking of Ethereum's decline, it has been quite systematic; when the 5-day moving average shows one or two large bearish candles, it gives you a small bullish candle. It seems like a bull market is returning, only to be followed by a new low.

Currently, the Master still sees many people holding onto fantasies, essentially deceiving themselves. Just look at the weekly chart; doesn't that trend resemble a death spiral? It's clearly a deep bear market.

Earlier, the Master mentioned in an article that Ethereum has been hovering around 2200 several times. Once it can't hold 2000, the space below opens up significantly, and 1600 to 1500 is likely to be the target.

Moreover, Ethereum currently has no bottom. If you insist on asking me where the bottom is, I can only refer you to where it fell during the deep bear market in 2022; you might consider that as a reference point.

I see some people still shouting that Ethereum will reach 8K or even 10K this year; it's as if they could bring dinosaurs back to life. To put it bluntly, let's be pragmatic and responsible for ourselves while not misleading others.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 84000

Second Resistance Level: 83300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 82300

Second Support Level: 81800

Today's Suggestions:

Yesterday's low of 81.3K held and rebounded, attempting to stabilize on the upward trend line, so a head and shoulders bottom pattern may be expected in the short term.

If it breaks through the first resistance level again today, it will break the bearish trend range and test the trend conversion range again. If it breaks through, it is not recommended to chase long positions; one should wait for confirmation of stabilization in the 83~83.3K range before making a very short-term entry.

However, currently, the resistance above is quite strong, and there are many trapped positions. Therefore, Bitcoin must first break through 84 to 84.5K to expect the first wave to rise to 86K.

The first support level and the 20-day moving average can be set as short-term support. Even in the case of a rebound, there are still resistances from the 200-day moving average and the upward trend line, so the possibility of another decline still exists.

3.19 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long positions in the 81800-82300 range, Target: 83300-84000

Short Entry Reference: Light short positions in the 84000-85000 range, Target: 82300-81800

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