The market is like a stern referee; its most just aspect is that it never forces you to cut losses with a whip, but the scale in its hand is precise and will certainly impose severe penalties based on your stubbornness. It is important to understand that in this ever-changing investment landscape, harboring a glimmer of luck is destined to lead to defeat.

According to yesterday's operational plan, we should have entered a short position around 84000. The aggressive entry would have been around 83500, while the highest rebound yesterday afternoon was around 83450. This position led some friends to short, while most did not, making this point quite awkward. Ultimately, the drop reached around 81000, which is nearly our first target for the short position. If you shorted, congratulations! If you didn't take action, there's no need to regret; this market is always full of trading opportunities, and we just need to find the best timing to execute the best trades. Dreams may be distant, but with determination, we can achieve our goals!

The next key point is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday and Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. Currently, the market's focus can be summarized into a few key points: the Federal Reserve's view on the current economic recession expectations, whether there will be targeted policies, how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflation under the pressure of tariffs from the former president, and most importantly, how the expectations for interest rate cuts will unfold. The market currently believes that the first rate cut in June is unlikely, with the possibility of two consecutive cuts only in the fourth quarter. This means that throughout the first half of the year, including tonight, a rate cut is 100% off the table; the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates. Of course, the main focus remains on Powell's speech and his attitude.

From a technical perspective, there is nothing particularly special in the current market. The continuous range oscillation has formed a main oscillation area between 81000 and 85000. On the four-hour chart, the current candlestick is still primarily small-bodied, with no clear continuation for either bulls or bears. The price is operating in the intersection area of various moving averages, and the MACD is almost flat along the zero line, indicating that the current market trend has no clear direction and requires further trend confirmation. Overall, the trend is still operating within a wedge-shaped descending channel, with a rebound in a weak market that does not directly change the trend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin initially followed the U.S. stock market down yesterday, but then rebounded due to buying support at lower levels, suggesting that there is short-term buying strength that does not want the market to continue falling. Considering the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision from last Thursday, as long as it aligns with market expectations, I believe Bitcoin's price should first rebound before testing lower levels. On the hourly chart, there is currently a rebound trend, but it is important to note that there is short-term resistance at 83500. During the day, the market is likely to maintain a range-bound situation, and then in the evening, the U.S. stock market will open, which should show some reaction to the interest rate decision. We will see if Bitcoin can generate some movement.

In terms of operations, the low long positions remain unchanged at 78400 and 77000. However, for short positions, if there is market volatility before the interest rate decision, we will operate in real-time. After the interest rate decision, we will place high short orders at 87500 and 89000.

Ethereum has shown some strength in recent days, not following Bitcoin's decline as much. Whether it has truly become strong still requires further observation. The short position given around 1940 can be held for now.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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