I. Current Situation: The Contradiction of MEME Project Explosion on BSC Chain and Market Differentiation

1. Short-term Frenzy of MEME Projects

- The Myth of TST and CaptainBNB's Surge: MEME tokens on the BSC chain continue to attract speculative funds, such as the test token TST mentioned by CZ, which saw its market cap soar to $41 million due to community hype, and CaptainBNB surged over 13,000% within 6 hours of launch. These projects have become the focus of retail investors by leveraging a "zero value support + social media virality" model.

- Speculative Logic Dominates: Market funds are flowing from mainstream tracks like Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting investors' short-term speculative mindset during periods of policy uncertainty.

2. Expectation Gap of Trump’s Policies

- The Bubble and Controversy of TRUMP Coin: The TRUMP coin issued by the Trump family once had a market cap exceeding $12 billion but was later questioned as a "disguised tool for corruption." The "First Lady Coin" issued by his wife Melania further diverted market funds, leading to a significant price drop.

- Regulatory Easing Did Not Meet Expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the slow implementation of policies has gradually eroded market optimism about "de-regulation."

II. Core Contradictions Behind the Cold Market

1. Short-term Nature of Liquidity Release and Market Structure Imbalance

- Limitations of TGA Liquidity Injection: The U.S. Treasury released approximately $150-250 billion in liquidity through the TGA account, driving a short-term rise in risk assets, but such operations are temporary and difficult to sustain a long-term bull market.

- "Precise Reallocation" of Funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (like BlackRock's IBIT), while the altcoin market lacks incremental funds, making the MEME craze more about internal rotation of existing funds.

2. Uncertainty in Macroeconomics and Policies

- Dual Pressure of Inflation and Debt: Trump's trade protection policies have raised supply chain costs, with core inflation potentially rebounding to 2.8%-3%, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, suppressing risk appetite.

- Increased Political Risk: The issuance of MEME coins by the Trump family has raised compliance concerns; if the SEC intervenes, it could trigger panic selling in the market.

3. Unsustainability of the MEME Model

- Zero Value Support and High Volatility: Many MEME projects on the BSC chain lack real use cases and rely on community hype; once the excitement fades (e.g., TST being denied listing by Binance), prices could plummet by over 90%.

- Escalating Regulatory Risks: The U.S. Congress has begun debating the legality of politicians issuing tokens; if legislation restricts this, the MEME sector will face systemic risks.

III. Future Predictions: Differentiation, Reconstruction, and Long-term Opportunities

1. Intensified Market Differentiation

- Strengthening Strategic Position of Bitcoin: Institutions like Standard Chartered predict that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to inflows from U.S. pension ETFs, becoming a core asset against inflation.

- Restructuring of the MEME Sector: Only a few projects (like MEME coins that integrate AI or practical scenarios) may survive, while most will go to zero due to liquidity exhaustion.

2. Policy-Driven Structural Opportunities

- Clarification of Regulatory Framework: If Trump successfully promotes the FIT21 Act, compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (like Circle) will benefit, while gray projects face elimination.

- Recovery of Layer2 and DeFi: With the Ethereum Cancun upgrade implemented, tokens like ARB and OP may rebound due to technological upgrades and ecosystem expansion, targeting a 50%-100% increase.

3. Macroeconomic Liquidity Rebalancing

- Shift in Federal Reserve Policy: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, expectations for interest rate cuts may trigger a broad rally in the crypto market, with Bitcoin likely to challenge $250,000 (according to Nexo's prediction).

- Inflows from Emerging Markets: During a strong dollar cycle, investors from Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings in cryptocurrencies to hedge against local currency depreciation risks, boosting demand for BTC, XRP, and others.

IV. Investor Strategies: A Balance of Defense and Offense

1. Short-term Defensive Allocation

- Reduce Leverage: It is recommended to keep contract leverage at 3-5 times and avoid overnight positions in MEME coins.

- Increase Holdings in Stablecoins: Retain 20%-30% of funds in USDC or DAI to guard against black swan events.

2. Medium to Long-term Offensive Direction

- Dollar-Cost Averaging in Bitcoin: Gradually build positions in the $78,000-$82,000 range, with a long-term target of $180,000-$200,000.

- Positioning in Leading Layer2 Projects: If OP and ARB pull back to below $0.4 and $1.0, respectively, gradually accumulate to bet on the ecological explosion dividend.

3. Be Aware of Risk Points

- Uncertainties in Trump’s Policies: If he fails to deliver on crypto-friendly policies, the market may correct by 10%-15%.

- Collapse of MEME Projects: Closely monitor trading volumes and community activity, and set strict stop-loss orders (e.g., if prices fall below support levels by 20%).

Conclusion

The crypto market in 2025 is caught in the struggle between "Trumponomics" and the MEME bubble. In the short term, the frenzy on the BSC chain cannot mask the policy and liquidity dilemmas; in the long term, Bitcoin's scarcity and the process of compliance remain the core narrative. Investors need to maintain rationality amidst the frenzy and seize reconstruction opportunities in the differentiation.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。