I. Fundamental Analysis

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ETF Data: The price trends of Ethereum and Bitcoin have seen a strong surge, primarily due to Bitcoin ETF inflows of 200 million USD for two consecutive days, with gradual inflows starting today as well. This indicates that the market is very optimistic about the future price trends of Bitcoin, with funds slowly and significantly entering the market. Therefore, the upcoming time nodes and entry timing are crucial.

Federal Reserve Meeting: After the Federal Reserve meeting yesterday, the money market fund rate remains at 4.5, consistent with expectations, which does not have a particularly large impact on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. However, the dot plot shows a positive trend, with a terminal value of 3.875%, indicating the possibility of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025, with the ultimate rate in 2025 potentially between 3.75% and 4.00%. This suggests that there may be a new breakout point in June or even September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: Bitcoin is in a large channel. Previously, we emphasized that it might continue to decline, and in fact, it has dropped through two channels, starting a strong rebound after touching 77,000 USD. Yesterday, a long bullish candle with significant volume broke through the neckline at 84,600 USD. If Bitcoin retests this position, it will continue to rise, with resistance levels at 88,000 USD and 94,000 USD. 85,000 USD is a key entry point, and everyone should not miss this opportunity.

From the four-hour level, after breaking the neckline, it is currently pulling back down. Attention should be paid to the important support at 84,600 - 85,000 USD, and it may be considered for entry or to add positions here. Because on the hourly level, there was an increase in volume when the bullish candle broke through, if it falls below this position, this round of upward movement will be declared over. If it returns to the 66,000 USD position, and if the channel drifts downwards, breaking the previous low without effective support, 66,000 will become a new bottom. Therefore, when Bitcoin has the opportunity to break through 83,000 and retest 77,000, it is essential to consider entering, at least in batches.

Ethereum: Yesterday, a long bullish candle with volume also appeared, and it has once again returned to the upward trend line, with support at 1,900 USD, in the range of 1,950 to 2,000 USD. Currently, the price of Ethereum is 2,026. If it retests 1,980 to 2,000 USD, near the upward trend line, it is crucial to consider adding positions or re-entering, as this is a key position on the extended line of the upward trend line. We have observed multiple times that breaking below this position and then breaking back above is a good entry opportunity.

If Ethereum breaks upward at this position and continues to rise upon retesting, its target levels are first 2,200 USD, and second 2,400 - 2,500 USD. However, all situations must pay attention to the 2,000 USD position, which cannot be effectively broken. Today, Ethereum and Bitcoin are experiencing upward breakthroughs, and attention should be paid to entry after retesting, with stop-loss levels referring to specific points in the student class.

RAY: RAY is in a channel during its decline, rebounding upwards after touching around 1.50, which is also the extended line of the previous rise. The day before yesterday, RAY showed a long bullish candle with volume on the daily level, breaking upward from the bottom. If it pulls back to around 1.78, it can be re-entered. From the daily level, RAY is still in the market bottom area; if it does not break this position after entering, in the next one to two months, attention should be paid to important positions above 3.0 and around 4.5 - 5.0.

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