1. U.S. Stock Market: Three Major Indices Slightly Decline, Tech Stocks Show Divergence

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.03%, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.22%. Popular tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Broadcom down over 2%, while tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all fell by less than 1%. Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta saw gains of less than 1%.

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations: Market Highly Focused on Policy Direction

CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the market expects an 83.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in May, with a 16.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. By June, the probability of maintaining rates drops to 29.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 59.7% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut probability of 10.5%. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, inflation levels, and tariff policies are key factors influencing market trends, and the market is in a highly sensitive period.

3. Bitcoin Market: Pullback After Breakthrough, Bears Dominate

Driven by news, Bitcoin strongly broke through the upper edge of the triangular convergence structure at the key resistance level of 85,000 and stabilized, briefly rising to around 87,000 before encountering resistance and falling back. Yesterday, it fluctuated in the 85,000 - 87,000 range during the day, accelerating downward after the U.S. stock market opened, hitting a low near 83,600 before stopping the decline, with the current price around 84,000. From a micro-cycle perspective, although there is a need for bottoming repair, the pace is slow and lacks reliable reversal signals, with bears dominating the market. The one-hour candlestick chart shows that the price recovery upward is constrained by the middle track, later breaking through the lower track. During the decline, trading volume increased, and bearish sentiment was strong. Although a brief rebound may occur, it is a technical repair lacking sustained upward momentum. Day trading should follow the daily line's pullback trend, adopting a high-position short strategy.

4. Ethereum Market: Surge Followed by Pullback, High Probability of Continued Short-Term Decline

Ethereum surged to a high of 2009 in the evening before facing downward pressure, dropping to a low of 1951 to stop the decline. On the daily level, compared to previous fluctuations, after a midnight surge and early Thursday, it began a weak downward adjustment during the day, with continued downward space despite some fluctuations. New trends often have continuity, allowing for trend-following operations. The daily line closed with a medium bearish candlestick, indicating a possibility of continued decline in the short term. The four-hour chart shows a continuous weak downward trend with five consecutive bearish candles. The short-term direction in the future will depend on the resistance around 2050 - 2050; if the rebound is blocked at the second low, the price will continue to decline.

If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, can’t read the charts, don’t know when to enter the market, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increase positions, get stuck while bottom-fishing, can’t hold onto profits, miss market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily moving forward in the market with you.

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