Zhou Yanling: 3.21 Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates, Slows Balance Sheet Reduction, Will Bitcoin Still Drop?
The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the March meeting, in line with market expectations. Although inflation remains above target and economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, this still reflects the Fed's concerns about weakening economic momentum. Powell referred to tariff issues as "temporary," but in reality, the policies of the Trump administration may long-term undermine corporate confidence and supply chains, exacerbating inflation and economic volatility, thereby constraining the Fed's policy space. Therefore, we must pay attention to this familiar term: whether "temporary" is, like two years ago, ultimately leading to completely uncontrolled inflation under the Fed's indulgence.
As for Powell's remarks, the old man's wording actually falls into the category of "cautiously optimistic." The optimistic point is employment, while the cautious point is inflation. However, his optimism combined with the current data is somewhat untenable. The downgrade of economic expectations aligns with Fitch's assessment of the economic outlook the previous night, but Powell did not acknowledge the possibility of "stagflation." Maintaining policy flexibility (not committing to the next steps) is meant to reassure the market, and defining inflation as "temporary" aims to inform the market that the probability of suddenly tightening policies is low, so there is no need to worry about an economic recession triggered by monetary policy. Overall, his speech has underlying meanings; it appears hawkish but is actually dovish.
In this context of dual dovishness (resolution + speech), although the price of Bitcoin broke through 87,000, it surprisingly failed to launch a continuous assault on the upper space. Perhaps this is the bearish signal we are looking for. Now, in cycle analysis, anything beyond 4 hours has little reference value; the hourly chart at least has some convoluted K-line traces. The previous MACD histogram is in the negative zone but shows signs of shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. The RSI value is close to 40, not entering the oversold zone, showing that the market still has room for adjustment. EMA7 has fallen below EMA30 and EMA120, indicating a weak price in the short term; however, EMA30 and EMA120 still maintain strong support.
Zhou Yanling's 3.21 Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Short at 85,500-84,500, stop loss above 86,500, target 83,000-82,000
Long at 82,000-83,000, stop loss below 81,000, target 84,300-85,300
Zhou Yanling's 3.21 Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Short at 2,040-2,000, stop loss above 2,080, target 1,905-1,870
Long at 1,870-1,910, stop loss below 1,830, target 1,940-1,980
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.】
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years, currently mainly analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrency contracts/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on unblocking strategies, and learning market observation skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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