Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be conducted with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, and you are welcome to read!
Article writing time: March 24, 11:51 AM Beijing Time
Market Information
- With the decrease in on-chain activity on Ethereum, the daily ETH burn rate has hit a historic low;
- Data: Long-term Bitcoin holders have increased their holdings by over 250,000 BTC in the past two months;
- Macroeconomic outlook for next week: The market expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, and the specter of stagflation remains to be resolved;
- The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May is 14.3%;
- The International Monetary Fund has included cryptocurrencies in the international balance of payments;
Market Review
**On Friday, the market broke through the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and stabilized. We positioned ourselves for long trades near the moving average. The weekend market movement was relatively slow, first showing a decline before rebounding. The low point for Bitcoin was at 83170, and after entering long positions, we also had opportunities to add to our positions, with the average price expected to be around 84000. The rebound high on Monday was at 86645, which basically reached the first take-profit target near 87000. Long positions can be exited at any time, with profits currently around 2200 points. Ethereum's weekend low was at 1935, which also provided us with an entry opportunity, but Ethereum's movement was relatively slow, with a peak at 2021, still not reaching 2100. Currently, profits are only around 30 points. *Ethereum long positions can still be held; currently, Bitcoin is around 87000, and we need to pay attention to whether it can stabilize above 87000. If it does, it will likely move towards 90000.*
Market Analysis
BTC:
From the daily chart, Bitcoin has stood above the 200-day moving average for the first time, which can be seen as a market breakthrough, indicating stronger bullish momentum. Even if it returns below over the weekend, it does not affect the subsequent rebound. The long positions established last Friday have only now reached their target. The weekend movement was relatively slow, and this week is expected to be a rebound week. The initial target above is around 95000. In the short term, Bitcoin faces some pressure around 87000. As we approach 12 PM, switching to the 4-hour chart, the chance of closing above is slim. In trading, it may be better to wait for a pullback before going long. Recommended entry point for long positions is around 84500, with an additional buy at 83500, stop loss at 82500, and target at 87000. If it breaks through, look for around 89000. (For those looking to catch a pullback during the day, you can try a light position around 86500 without adding to your position, with the target just seeing around 84500, and set a stop loss at 87500.) Manage your entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses.
ETH:
Ethereum's recent movement has been too slow, but although the daily trend is slow, the bottom is continuously rising, leaning towards bullish. The pullbacks will not be deep. The strategy for Ethereum can basically remain unchanged, maintaining last Friday's strategy, aiming for 2100-2200 from the long position around 1970, with a stop loss at 1870. Manage your entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses.
In summary:
Bitcoin's short-term rebound is facing resistance above, and it needs to pull back during the day before continuing to rise.
The article is time-sensitive; be aware of risks. The above is only personal advice and for reference!
Follow the WeChat public account "Crypto Lao Zhao" to discuss the market together;
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