Macroeconomic Interpretation: The Federal Reserve's oscillation is playing a variation for the market. Goolsbee has emphasized the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored for two consecutive days, comparing the University of Michigan's 3.9% consumer inflation expectation to the sword of Damocles hanging over the interest rate cut pathway. Interestingly, the five-year forward rate in the bond market remains at a "gentle" 2.2%, and this expectation gap is like a tightrope walker maintaining balance; any slight disturbance could trigger violent fluctuations in asset prices. The crypto market's response is quite artistic—Bitcoin chose to hover in the air after reaching $88,765, neither breaking the previous high nor significantly retreating, resembling a feline waiting for the "policy boot" of the tariff statement on April 2 to drop.
The trend of Bitcoin strategic reserves at the state government level can be described as the most magical realism script of 2025. Amid the legislative clamor in the halls of 26 state legislatures, Wisconsin has quietly injected $588 million in real money into a Bitcoin ETF, a figure that dramatically echoes Goolsbee's warning of a "10% state fund allocation limit." Deutsche Bank analysts humorously dubbed this "a fantastical drift from parliamentary debate to on-chain accounting," as state treasurers collectively study "The Bitcoin Standard," while politicians in Washington are still red-faced arguing over how to define cryptocurrency.
The "ice-breaking action" in the regulatory field is staging a reversal. The SEC has unprecedentedly announced it will hold four crypto-themed roundtable discussions, covering everything from trading regulation to the DeFi ecosystem, allowing the market to sense the dawn of breaking free from regulatory fog. Ironically, just as the SEC opens the door to dialogue, the stablecoin lending rates on the Aave platform have quietly dipped below the psychological threshold of 4%, a decline in this indicator, seen as the "fear index" of the crypto market, suggesting that leveraged players are shifting from the crypto market to a more conservative wait-and-see approach.
The tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market can be likened to a contemporary financial performance art exhibition. GameStop's official announcement of including Bitcoin in its treasury has once again set off a "rising tide" frenzy in the MEME sector, while the "HODL" movement of long-term Bitcoin holders has turned the on-chain chip distribution map into a modern-day Da Vinci Code. While speculators are stirring up the derivatives market, true whales are lurking in the deep waters of the chain, waiting for the right moment to act.
The crypto market has seemingly become a holographic projection of the macroeconomy. The tariff statement on April 2 may become the "policy match" that breaks the deadlock, while the reality of the consumer confidence index dropping to a four-year low casts a darkly humorous veil over this capital game. Historical data shows that April has always been a "honeymoon period" for risk assets, but this time may warrant a question mark—when Wisconsin's Bitcoin ETF holdings certificates sway alongside Trump's tariff list on the Federal Reserve's scales, any slight disturbance could trigger a butterfly effect.
This crypto rhapsody woven from policy fog, regulatory dawn, and institutional games is pushing Bitcoin toward a more complex value positioning. It is both a Noah's Ark for state governments combating the depreciation of the dollar and an arena for speculators chasing volatility, as well as a thermometer for global capital recalibrating risk preferences. While Goolsbee and others are still arguing over inflation expectations, Bitcoin has already been silently writing a new financial narrative on-chain—perhaps just as Satoshi Nakamoto left the message in the genesis block: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks," history always creates new miracles in its cycles.
According to CoinAnkAI intelligent analysis, the BTC 4H market analysis report is as follows:
Main support level: 86282.86 USDT
Main resistance level: 88522.86 USDT
Current trend: Fluctuating slightly bullish
Technical indicators summary:
Moving Average System: MA5=87576.36, MA10=87467.30, MA20=86434.34, MA120=84450.54. The moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, with short-term moving averages above long-term moving averages, indicating an overall bullish trend in the market.
MACD: DIF=816.43, DEA=800.72, Histogram=15.71. The MACD is in a golden cross state, and the histogram is above the zero axis, showing strong bullish momentum.
BOLL: Upper band=89259.83, Middle band=86434.34, Lower band=83608.86. The current price is between the middle and upper bands, and %B=0.67%, indicating that the price is in a strong area but has not yet reached the upper band, leaving room for upward movement.
RSI: RSI6=55.49, RSI12=59.89, RSI14=60.10, RSI24=58.69. The RSI indicator is in a neutral to slightly bullish area, not entering overbought or oversold zones, indicating relatively stable market sentiment.
KDJ: K=55.05, D=59.56, J=46.03. The KDJ indicator is in a golden cross state, but the J value is low, indicating a potential need for a short-term pullback.
Indicator data:
Funding rate: 0.00128300%. The funding rate is slightly negative, indicating that market bearish sentiment is not obvious, but there is also no strong bullish sentiment, resulting in a relatively neutral market sentiment.
Volume changes: Recent trading volume has been relatively stable, with no significant increase or decrease, and the volume-price relationship is relatively healthy.
Capital flow data: The net inflow and outflow of 4H contracts is 305779607.77, indicating a significant outflow of funds in the short term, but the 24H net inflow and outflow is 376018326.18, showing an overall capital flow leaning bearish, necessitating caution regarding short-term pullback risks.
Analysis results
Direction: Cautiously bullish
Entry timing: It is recommended to enter when the price pulls back to around 86500 USDT; if the price directly breaks through 88522.86 USDT, consider chasing the long position.
Stop-loss setting: Set the stop-loss at 85500 USDT, with a stop-loss margin of about 2%.
Target price: The target price is set at 90000 USDT, with an expected return of about 3.1%.
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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