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Macroeconomic Market Fluctuations Trigger Turmoil in the Crypto Market

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Nasdaq falling by 2.04%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 11; the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.12%, and the Dow Jones also saw a decline of 0.31%. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, there has been a significant change in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction. The probability of maintaining the interest rate in May is 86.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 13.6%; by June, the probability of maintaining the interest rate drops to 33.6%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 58.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.3%. Additionally, Trump announced on March 26 that a 25% permanent tariff would be imposed on all imported cars. Under the impact of multiple news events, the crypto market experienced a comprehensive decline. Previously, Bitcoin and Ethereum had been consolidating for a long time, and investors were expecting a breakout that did not materialize, ultimately leading to a collapse in market sentiment and triggering a sell-off.

In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Market Trends

Bitcoin rose to a high of $88,499 yesterday morning but quickly faced strong resistance and fell back. Bears took the opportunity to push the price down to around $87,000, after which bulls stepped in to stabilize the price and launched a counterattack, reaching the $88,250 level. However, after the U.S. stock market opened, market sentiment worsened, and Bitcoin's price plummeted again, stabilizing at a low of $85,823. Although there was a rebound to $87,370 in the early morning, it could not be sustained, and the current price is at $86,700. From a market momentum analysis, bulls are showing weakness and struggling to break through key resistance levels, mainly due to a lack of substantial positive news and severe market hesitation, leading to reduced trading activity. From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour K-line chart are continuously narrowing, combined with the converging oscillation characteristics within the $85,000 - $88,500 range over the past week, forming a typical equilibrium zone between bulls and bears. The price is caught in repeated oscillations, urgently needing a clear trend signal.

Interpretation of Ethereum Market Trends

Ethereum's price fluctuations are very similar to Bitcoin's. It fell from a high of $2,077 in the morning, receiving support at the $2,040 level before technically rebounding to $2,074. However, during the night, influenced by U.S. stock market fluctuations, the price quickly retraced to $1,980. The technical analysis shows that the market structure is under significant pressure, and in the short term, due to a lack of positive news and market hesitation, the price is unlikely to break through the upper resistance level, with panic sentiment in the market potentially spreading gradually. In this situation, investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and use risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders and diversification to reduce potential risks, while continuously paying attention to macroeconomic data, regulatory policies, and industry trends to respond promptly to changes in market trends.

If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop-losses, don’t understand take-profit strategies, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing defeats. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends should be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

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