Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Today, Master will share some personal views. Everyone should be aware of the micro-strategy in the past couple of days, right? Let's talk about the high-risk play of micro-strategy and how Bitcoin might move next.

To be honest, the all-in approach of micro-strategy on Bitcoin is frighteningly risky. Especially when encountering a cyclical deep bear market, the floating losses can be terrifying, and it could lead to a disaster.

Everyone can think about it: every four years, Bitcoin drops from the peak of a bull market, with corrections reaching over 66%. Who can withstand that? The micro-strategy's approach is to hoard coins without selling, which is like putting all your eggs in one basket.

If the money earned from other business operations isn't enough, then the crisis could be significant. I truly don't believe they can hold on without selling during a deep bear market. It's like you, spending hundreds of thousands or even millions each year without saving enough money; how could you just lie down and do nothing?

If an unexpected event occurs, like a family member falling seriously ill, wouldn't that be the last straw? Additionally, regarding the situation this year, reducing interest rates once or twice seems designed to push prices up and then cap them.

Otherwise, where would Bitcoin find the reason to rise again? Currently, 110k seems to be the peak of this bull market, and there's no way around it. The higher the price climbs, the more money needs to continuously flow in to support it.

But if the economy falters and enters a recession, once the cash flow of listed companies tightens, stock prices and cryptocurrency prices will shrink, squeezing out the bubble, and then we will fall back into a cyclical bear market.

In the current situation, to put it simply, we have just endured the darkest times, and there is a bit of emotional recovery. There are signs of policy easing, but many doubts remain in people's minds, and the market lacks the confidence to charge forward.

It may move in fits and starts, taking three steps forward and one step back, or even two steps back is normal. Good news may lead to a surge, but if the momentum isn't enough, it will have to consolidate; if any unexpected events occur, it may need to step back again.

In fact, the decline isn't due to any particularly bad news, still revolving around tariffs. Trump mentioned that the tariffs on April 2 might not be so severe, and the market was quite happy, but today he backtracked, saying it's not that simple, and the auto tariffs will need more adjustments.

With tariffs blocking the way and the Federal Reserve watching closely, St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that due to tariffs, U.S. inflation might remain above 2% for a long time, and the Fed won't rush to cut interest rates, believing that the impact of the second round of tariffs isn't just a one-time price increase.

So, there are still many challenges in April, especially with Trump's erratic thoughts. Additionally, with April's GDP data, some institutions believe there is a 25% chance of a U.S. economic recession by 2025, which sounds a bit precarious.

Back to the market, I've recently seen some brothers busy flipping between long and short positions all day. Let me be straightforward: in this market, going long at lows is definitely not a bad idea in the short term, but it's best to wait for a pullback before entering.

Even if you want to short, don't keep doing it at the same price point. Don't short the same place more than three times; you should place orders in batches at higher resistance levels. Bitcoin is currently tightly bound to the U.S. stock market; without any independent good news, the stock market's fluctuations directly influence Bitcoin.

However, the trading volume is pitifully low; there’s no volume when it drops, and nothing significant happens when it rises. If you check on some exchanges like Coinbase, the trading volume is almost at a two-year low. What does this indicate? It indicates that Bitcoin has entered a period of slight fluctuations.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 89500

Second Resistance Level: 88300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 86800

Second Support Level: 85800

Today's Suggestions:

Bitcoin is currently rebounding after adjusting within an upward channel, and we can expect another test of the 88k level. Since yesterday, the coin price has held above the 200-day moving average, so the short-term view can maintain a rebound perspective.

The first resistance level of 88300 is an area that has been tested eight times, and it is also a strong resistance. If it breaks through this strong resistance, it will increase market expectations for a rise, especially if accompanied by increased trading volume, which could lead to a strong upward movement.

The psychological resistance level above is 90000, so at the resistance level, it is advisable to take profits in batches to accumulate gains and trade along with the trend.

The first support level of 86800 is the previous high point from yesterday. Since it has recovered, it is reasonable to hold this level without falling below it again, and it is also the first buying point on a very short-term basis.

For those who are more conservative, they can look for short-term entry opportunities in the range of the 200-day moving average and 85800. However, in the current adjustment, reaching the 200-day moving average may not be an appropriate adjustment, so it is advisable to buy in batches near 86800.

3.27 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long in the range of 86800-85800, Target: 88300-89500

Short Entry Reference: Light short near 88300, if it rises near 89500, short directly, Target: 86800-85300

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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