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Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis Report as of March 31, 2025
I. Overall Market Pattern
As of March 31, 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk by $610 billion since the beginning of the year, currently around $2.66 trillion, with the market showing a weak oscillating pattern overall. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as the two leading assets, both show downward pressure on the technical front, with short-term key support levels being tested. Institutional capital inflows are slowing (e.g., Bitcoin ETF's daily net inflow has stagnated), combined with stablecoin trading volume shrinking to a quarter of bull market levels, indicating cautious sentiment among market participants.
II. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)
Technical Analysis
Daily Level: The price has retraced for three consecutive days, currently approaching the MA256 daily moving average ($80,500). If it breaks below, it may further test the psychological level of $80,000. The daily MACD histogram remains negative, and the RSI is neutral (52), lacking clear directional signals, but the "lower highs and lower lows" structure suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
4-Hour Cycle: The price is moving down along the MA10 moving average, with short-term resistance at $83,200-$83,500 (coinciding with the March 30 high), and support focusing on the $80,000 round number and $78,000 (previous low area). If $80,000 is lost, it may trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate the decline.
Key Data and Historical Validation
Trading Volume and Open Interest: The 24-hour trading volume is $14 billion, significantly lower than the beginning of the year, with volume-price divergence indicating weak buying interest. On-chain data shows long-term holders are reluctant to sell, but hidden selling pressure still exists.
Historical Support Validity: The $80,000 level has repeatedly become a battleground for bulls and bears in 2024. If it effectively breaks down, it may open up a downward space to $75,000 (referencing the depth of the December 2024 correction).
Operational Strategy
Short Position: Increase positions on a rebound to the $82,600-$83,200 area, targeting $79,000-$80,000, with a stop-loss above $84,000.
Long Position: Lightly test long positions in the $80,000/$78,000 area, with a stop-loss at $77,000, betting on a rebound from oversold conditions.
III. Dynamic Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)
Technical Focus
Daily Structure: The price continues to be constrained by the $1,850 resistance, with key support at $1,750 (March low). The daily RSI is weakly neutral (48), and the MACD shows a slight bearish crossover. If it breaks below $1,750, it may accelerate testing $1,650.
4-Hour Cycle: The $1,818-$1,840 area is short-term resistance, with support at $1,780-$1,750. After losing the hourly MA256 moving average ($1,980), bearish momentum has increased.
Market Catalysts
ETF Dynamics: Although there was a single-day net inflow for the Ethereum ETF on March 29 (the first since March 4), overall capital inflows remain weak, and Grayscale's ETHE product has not recorded any increments, indicating limited institutional interest.
On-Chain Data: Exchange reserves have dropped to historical lows, with long-term holders reaching peak levels, which may limit short-term selling pressure but is unlikely to change the downtrend.
Operational Strategy
Short Position: Enter in batches on a rebound to the $1,818-$1,840 area, targeting $1,780-$1,750, with a stop-loss at $1,855.
Long Position: Not recommended to bottom-fish against the trend; wait for stabilization signals at $1,750.
IV. Interpretation of Market News
Regulatory Policies
Panama: Passed a cryptocurrency regulatory draft, recognizing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins as legal payment tools, which is a long-term positive but has limited short-term impact on prices.
European Union: The "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" (MiCA) has come into full effect, strengthening compliance requirements, which may suppress the activity of leveraged trading.
Industry Dynamics
Exchange Movements: Platforms like Kraken are accelerating their transition to multi-asset services, but trading volume is declining during the market consolidation period, increasing liquidity risks.
Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have not effectively boosted risk assets, with the crypto market showing reduced correlation with traditional assets, revealing independent market characteristics.
V. Institutional Views and Market Sentiment
Mainstream Institutional Predictions
Bitcoin: Analysts generally believe that the $80,000 support is a short-term battleground for bulls and bears. If it is lost, it will confirm a mid-term correction. Long-term, they remain optimistic about the upward trend of the MA200 ($65,200) but need to be cautious of short-term overselling.
Ethereum: Analysts like Benjamin Cowen predict that the ETH/BTC ratio may bottom out and rebound in 2025, but still need to digest selling pressure in the short term.
Sentiment Indicators
Fear and Greed Index: Currently in the "neutral" range, not entering extreme value areas, with strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
Derivatives Data: The ETH put/call ratio has risen to 0.85, indicating increased hedging demand.
VI. Risk Warnings and Summary
Key Risks
Liquidity Crisis: If Bitcoin falls below $80,000 or Ethereum loses $1,750, it may trigger a chain reaction of futures contract liquidations, exacerbating volatility.
Policy Changes: The U.S. SEC's regulatory stance on ETH staking remains uncertain, which could trigger a black swan event.
Summary
The current market is in a weak cycle dominated by technical factors, and operations must strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline. The $80,000 support for Bitcoin and the $1,750 for Ethereum are short-term battlegrounds for bulls and bears; if broken, strategies need to be adjusted to a more conservative range. Medium to long-term investors can focus on the MA200 moving average support, waiting for stabilization signals before gradually positioning.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly oscillating, accompanied by intermittent spikes, so when making trades, remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss well. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who need to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link later. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient in styles: mobile lock-up strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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