Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
As the trade war initiated by U.S. President Trump escalates, the market's attention is now focused on Wednesday (April 2), a day Trump has referred to as "Liberation Day."
Trump has repeatedly promised to introduce a series of tariffs or impose taxes on imported goods from other countries. He stated that this would help the U.S. reduce its dependence on foreign products, thus the U.S. will impose "reciprocal tariffs," which means levying tariffs on U.S. imports that are equal to the rates imposed by trade partners on U.S. exports.
Currently, how these tariffs will be implemented remains unclear. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Monday that Trump will announce plans for reciprocal tariffs on nearly all U.S. trade partners on Wednesday, but emphasized that details will be disclosed by him personally.
Trump has only been in office for a few months, but he has shown a tough stance on tariffs, frequently threatening to impose them while creating turmoil through repeated adjustments to trade policies. The market anticipates that we may see further delays or policy uncertainties this week.
Citi Predicts Three Tariff Scenarios and Their Impact
Citi has made three major predictions regarding the tariff policy on April 2 and analyzed the corresponding market impacts:
The report notes that the S&P 500 index has just experienced its worst quarterly start since 2020. Analysts are warning that the market's downside risks outweigh the upside potential. Future tariff policies and the countermeasures from various countries will be key variables. The market's reaction to the April 2 policy will also depend on the timing of tariff implementation, especially the introduction of industry-specific tariffs and the speed of countermeasures from other countries.
Cryptocurrency Market in Turmoil, Future Trends Divergent
Under the shadow of tariffs, the cryptocurrency market is also experiencing turmoil. On Monday, Bitcoin's price briefly touched a low of $81,300, but the market saw some respite on Tuesday. According to Gate.io data, as of 3:20 PM on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) had 24-hour gains of 1.78%, 3.26%, and 0.32%, respectively. However, according to Alternative.me's Crypto Fear and Greed Index, the current index value is at 34, indicating that the market is in a state of panic, unchanged from Monday.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Regarding the next steps for the cryptocurrency market, opinions are somewhat divided.
Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, stated in an interview that he believes Bitcoin's price may fall back to the $50,000 range by the end of this year.
He said, "I don't think this will happen quickly, which is why this round of correction will be painful and shocking for the market. The current market is not in a state of extreme volatility, with no large-scale liquidations or crashes."
He pointed out that the current market environment is different from the past, and Bitcoin may gradually correct in a slow downward manner, making this "grinding" decline even more unbearable. "Investors will keep asking themselves: 'Is it over? Have we hit the bottom?'"
On the other hand, Zack Wainwright, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, believes that Bitcoin is currently gearing up for the next phase of acceleration.
He noted that a typical characteristic of Bitcoin's acceleration phase is "high volatility and high returns," similar to the market performance when Bitcoin broke through $20,000 in December 2020. The current correction is still within the normal range of Bitcoin's historical cycle adjustments, consistent with the average drawdown of past market cycles.
Amid market volatility, institutional investors continue to express their long-term confidence in the cryptocurrency market through concrete actions. Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, announced that the company has purchased 22,048 Bitcoins for $1.92 billion, with an average purchase price of $86,969 per Bitcoin.
On the same day, Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital also revealed plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to periodically increase its Bitcoin holdings.
This Week's Other Focus: Non-Farm Data and Powell's Speech
In addition to the tariff policy on April 2, Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the March non-farm employment data are also worth noting.
The market currently expects that U.S. job growth in March will slow down. The baseline forecast shows that non-farm employment data will increase by 128,000, down from 151,000 last month.
Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, believes that April 2 may have been overhyped, and the non-farm data to be released on Friday is the key indicator for assessing whether the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing, which will directly impact the market trend in April.
Three hours after the non-farm employment data is released, Powell will also deliver a speech to introduce the outlook for the U.S. economy. He stated at the press conference following the March monetary policy meeting that the Federal Reserve is waiting for "hard data" to verify new signs of economic pressure.
Related: As Trump's Tariff Policy Approaches, Stablecoins and Tokenized Assets Gain Favor
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