Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
On March 31, during the Wall Street opening session, Bitcoin prices rose slightly, although traders remained risk-averse regarding short-term trends.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin suggests that the downtrend may continue.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that the BTC/USD trading pair on the Bitstamp exchange rose 1.5% on the day, reaching a high of $83,914.
Despite a lower opening for U.S. stocks, Bitcoin experienced a long-awaited rebound in the final hours before the quarterly close.
Market momentum continues to be influenced by the new U.S. tariff policy set to take effect on April 2, with gold also experiencing a pullback after reaching a historic high of $3,128 per ounce.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Regarding Bitcoin's price movement, most market participants remain cautious.
Notable trader Roman pointed out in a recent analysis on platform X regarding the 4-hour BTC/USD chart: "We are retesting the key $84,000 area that we are focused on." He predicted that, based on the RSI, the price may pull back closer to the $80,000 level.
"From a short-term framework (LTF), I believe the price will start to decline as the downward breakout and bearish retest are completed," Roman added, "Meanwhile, the RSI is retesting the 50 midline, and the stochastic indicator has shown overbought conditions. The higher time frame (HTF) also shows a bearish tendency."
BTC/USD 4-hour chart, including RSI data. Source: Roman/X
Renowned trading analyst Rekt Capital further interpreted the RSI signals, noting that Bitcoin is retesting support at the daily level after breaking through a months-long downtrend line.
"$BTC's RSI is attempting to convert the downtrend line into a support level, while the price action is also facing downward trend pressure," he summarized to his followers on platform X, "If the RSI can successfully hold the trend line support… it will indicate that the market is building momentum, and the price is likely to break out of the current descending channel."
BTC/USD 1-day chart and RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported that multiple Bitcoin price indicators collectively outline a weak phase in the current bull market, suggesting that a correction may continue.
Meanwhile, the target price for BTC provided by various forecasting platforms has dropped to $65,000, with some models even showing lower expectations.
Bitcoin price analysis shows a similar trend to the end of 2024.
The overall performance for March and the first quarter has not met market expectations.
Monitoring platform CoinGlass data shows that, in the absence of upward catalysts, as of the time of writing, BTC/USD has accumulated a decline of 10.8% year-to-date, with a monthly drop of 1.1% in March.
BTC/USD monthly return rate (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex released its latest analysis report "Bitfinex Alpha" on March 31, indicating that the first quarter of 2025 is set to be the worst opening quarter for Bitcoin in years.
The report's author analyzed: "The current buying momentum is capped at the $89,000 level—this price point coincides with the observed range low in December 2024, forming a strong resistance level for further upward movement. At the same time, the S&P 500 index also closed down 1.5% weekly, indicating increased downward pressure in the stock market."
BTC/USD 1-week chart (screenshot). Source: Bitfinex
The report particularly emphasized the increasingly strong correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks: "Despite market volatility, the price action has formed a consolidation pattern in the $78,000 to $88,000 range in recent weeks. Notably, signs of panic selling in the market are easing—reactive selling has decreased, and long-term holders have resumed accumulation mode."
Related: Four key indicators show that an $80,000 Bitcoin price is indeed "undervalued."
This article does not constitute investment advice. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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