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Fidelity Digital Assets' latest report presents a key analysis: Has the price of Bitcoin completed its periodic "peak and pullback," or is it on the eve of a new "acceleration phase"?

Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright points out that a typical characteristic of Bitcoin's acceleration phase is "high volatility and high returns," similar to the market performance when BTC broke through $20,000 in December 2020.

Although Bitcoin's year-to-date return is -11.4%, down nearly 25% from its historical high, Wainwright emphasizes that the current post-acceleration phase trend aligns with the average pullback magnitude seen in previous market cycles.

Historic declines of Bitcoin after the acceleration phase. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

Wainwright notes that Bitcoin is currently still in the acceleration phase, but the cycle is nearing its end—having lasted 232 days as of March 3. Historical data shows that the acceleration phases in 2010-2011, 2015, and 2017 peaked at 244 days, 261 days, and 280 days respectively, indicating a trend of extending duration for each cycle.

Will Bitcoin experience a parabolic rise again?

Since February 21, the BTC price has remained below the $100,000 mark, and the market momentum and optimism brought by the "Trump trade" have gradually faded, replaced by volatility triggered by the tariff war and concerns over a U.S. economic recession.

Despite these suppressive factors, large institutions continue to accumulate BTC. On March 31, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 22,048 BTC (worth $1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969; on the same day, Bitcoin mining company MARA disclosed plans to issue $2 billion in stock for indefinite BTC accumulation.

Japanese listed company Metaplanet also issued bonds worth 2 billion yen (approximately $13.3 million) on March 31 for Bitcoin allocation, while the most significant news in March was GameStop's plan to issue $1.3 billion in convertible bonds, with some funds potentially used to purchase Bitcoin.

The latest moves by these multinational listed companies demonstrate a strategy of "ignoring price" when institutions treat BTC as a reserve asset, also confirming their optimistic expectations for future prices. Wainwright believes that while it is difficult to quantify the direct impact of institutional buying on prices, one key indicator to watch is the "number of days with historical highs in the 60-day rolling cycle."

He released a chart and analyzed: "Bitcoin typically experiences two main upward waves during past acceleration phases, with the first of this round already realized post-election. If a new high market is about to begin, the starting point may anchor around $110,000."

Bitcoin historical highest days (rolling 60 days). Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research

Related: Japanese company Metaplanet issues $13.3 million bonds to purchase more Bitcoin

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.

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