Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

At the end of Q1 2025, there is no doubt that the most disheartened group in the crypto community is the "E Guardians."

On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly five years since May 2020, now at just 0.02193; on the other hand, the "soul figure" of Ethereum—Vitalik—recently engaged in a bizarre act of "learning to meow" with a robotic dog, which has left many in the Ethereum community perplexed and has sparked dissatisfaction among some members.

Currently, in the "darkest hour" of Ethereum, with prices dropping below $1800, the "ETH Hangzhou" event is in full swing, with many developers and Ethereum community members enthusiastically participating in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily conducted on-site interviews at "ETH Hangzhou" to hear about the development of the Ethereum ecosystem from the attendees' perspectives.

When "butt decides the brain" has failed: 50% hold 10 or fewer ETH, 40% hold 100 or fewer ETH

At the Demo Day of ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small-sample survey of the attendees, with a total sample size of about 10 people, among which:

• Only 1 person has completely liquidated their ETH;
• 50% hold 1-10 ETH;
• 40% hold 10-100 ETH.

Notably, the person who liquidated their ETH, @Solomon_NAHHH, mentioned that they had cleared their ETH position a year ago and now have some holdings in SUI; @0xBenniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, believes the Ethereum ecosystem is extremely abstract; among those holding fewer than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that they hold a large number of ETH short positions.

Development Stage of the ETH Ecosystem: 70% believe it has entered middle age

In the small sample survey of 10 people, there was a certain consensus on the question of the development stage of the Ethereum ecosystem. Among them:

• 20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youth;
• 70% (7 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age;
• 10% (1 person) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered old age.

Those who hold the first view mainly consider the technical route, believing that from the perspective of technical implementation, the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its early stages, with many technical routes still in the exploratory phase; in contrast, those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered old age mainly consider the token economy, arguing that based on the timeline of ETH issuance and the operational phase of the token, the Ethereum ecosystem has indeed entered a relatively solidified old age stage.

Those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age mainly view it from the perspective of ecological development stages, noting that Ethereum is currently in a relatively well-developed infrastructure phase, with all sub-tracks, except for DeFi, having been disproven to varying degrees; liquidity and major crypto projects still regard the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the primary ecosystem.

Possibility of New ETH Price Highs: No hope within 3 years, see you in the next cycle

When asked whether "ETH prices can break through the previous historical high of nearly $4800 within 1-2 years and set a new high," almost everyone held a pessimistic attitude, including "E Guardians" who entered the space in 2019 and "ETH ecosystem Builders" engaged in Ethereum DeFi project development.

Overall, opinions on the timing of a new market price high for ETH can be categorized into three main types:

• The first type, possibly in 2-3 years. Crypto KOL and Day1Global founder @RubyWang, along with crypto KOL and KiteAI CMO @0xLaughing, believe that a new high for ETH prices mainly relies on new asset issuance methods or new asset types that lead the market.
• The second type, starting from 5 years and then reassessing. Day1Global founder @Starzq believes that it is difficult for ETH to reach new highs solely on its own; only through liquidity overflow from BTC or marginal innovations in the Ethereum ecosystem could this be possible. @Freya from the Zhejiang University Blockchain Association suggests that perhaps hope can be placed on community development or technological breakthroughs.
• The third type, unknown timing, mainly dependent on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0xPhiloA, and others believe that the new market price high for ETH depends on when the L2 solutions that are draining ETH are eliminated, the implementation of technologies like Based Rollup, and the maturation of applications after washing out NFT players, GameFi players, and even DeFi players who previously bought at high prices.

Additionally, @Solomon_NAHHH suggests another possibility: if the US ETH ETF can fully liquidate and be taken over by Eastern powers, there might be a chance to challenge the new high.

@ConstantinGao, who holds a large ETH short position, points out that the main reason for the current poor performance of ETH prices is the collapse of narratives like "digital oil" and "world computer." Ethereum has now become a business of renting block space, and after experiencing events like L2 expansion, it has not only been drained but also had its cost of consumption further reduced, leading to the market no longer recognizing the token's value storage function. In this regard, it is entirely different from BTC, which emphasizes the "digital gold" concept; the latter has been accepted by the market after abandoning its payment positioning. Furthermore, he mentions that although he does not have a positive outlook on ETH's price performance in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stages of the internet industry, Ethereum still has significant potential for long-term development. Driven by mature applications, the demand for token consumption may experience tremendous growth, similar to the transition from early dial-up internet to short videos and live commerce, at which point ETH prices may gradually reach new highs.

Conclusion: ETH is not irreplaceable, but it remains the main battlefield of crypto

Among the many young faces, I observed that there are still quite a few young individuals actively participating in the ETH ecosystem events. Despite the lackluster ETH prices, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with both seasoned veterans and newcomers steadfastly committed to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, we can only leave it to time to judge.

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