Master Discusses Hot Topics:

The issue of tariffs has finally been settled, and it can be said that this is the most hardcore version anticipated by the market. As discussed before, if this strongest version really comes, the market will definitely calculate the worst-case scenarios based on these policy numbers, which will have a significant impact on the market.

Now everyone can see that U.S. stock futures have dropped sharply. Bitcoin also surged before plummeting, which reflects the market pricing in the worst-case scenario.

However, I believe this pricing may not be fully in place yet, and we need to wait a bit longer to see when the market can clear. Once it clears, there might be some good news coming, and the market could catch a breather.

Additionally, many people are shouting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June or July, and a big market rally will follow. Personally, I still think it’s not that simple; let’s not forget the big thunder of Japan's interest rate hike.

The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates in July and September-October of 2025, gradually adjusting the rate from the current level to 0.75%, and it might even reach 1.00% by early 2026.

Think about the two interest rate hikes on July 31 last year and January 24 this year; after each hike, the bulls were basically buried within about a week, so this risk cannot be ignored.

For example, around the Federal Reserve's meeting in early May, the market performance in the first half of the year may not be as strong as those KOLs claim. Shorting at highs might be more reassuring because rising is tough, but falling can happen quickly.

Especially from June to July, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Japan's interest rate hike could disrupt things, so going long should be approached cautiously. Last night, a bunch of KOLs were shouting about Bitcoin hitting 91k and 95k, and even more absurdly, some were calling for 100k.

Speaking of such rapid surges, how could that possibly be a real bull market? A genuine rise should be steady, inching up day by day, closing slightly higher than the previous day; that would be reasonable. Those who liked to hold positions last night and chased the highs without exiting quickly are now stuck with several thousand points in losses, right?

Continuing from yesterday's discussion about altcoins, after each round of hot topics, it’s always a mess. After being cut multiple times and hitting zero, there are still so many people rushing in, especially small investors, who always think they can get rich quick with altcoins instead of Bitcoin.

In fact, this is a mental trap; wealth must be accumulated slowly. Sometimes being a bit slower and steadier can lead to faster results in the end. If you always think of making a leap to success, you’ll likely end up with nothing.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 85600

Second Resistance Level: 84400

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 82400

Second Support Level: 81200

Today's Suggestions:

Since the converging area of the moving averages that broke through yesterday has now turned into strong resistance, it may take longer to rise again. The first resistance at 84.4K has the 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages overlapping here, so the probability of a pullback is high.

If it breaks through and stabilizes in this area during the day, we need to pay attention to the confirmation of a pullback after breaking through the moving averages. Instead of expecting a breakout, it’s better to focus on whether the price can gradually raise the low points through sideways consolidation, slowly digesting selling pressure before rising.

The first support at 82.4K is the previous low formed today and is also an important short-term support level. Since a low point has formed near the rising trend line, it can be determined that the rising trend line is being held in the short term. We should also watch whether the price can raise the low points along the trend line and rebound again.

Although Bitcoin has shown a large bearish candle, it has stopped falling near the rising trend line. Therefore, we should use the rising trend line and the previous low point as a reference, and consider short-term rebound trading opportunities when prices dip.

When the market rebounds, do not be overly optimistic thinking that this is the bottom; the current market is still unstable, so we must be wary of selling pressure from profit-taking.

4.3 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 84500-85600 range, Target: 82400-81200

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