The only time the U.S. had any meaningful acceleration in inflation in 40+ years was in 2021 & 2022, following the most historical monetary bazooka & enormous government transfer payments (stimulus checks + unemployment).

Right now, we have neither of those things.

My recipe for inflation has been straight forward:

1. Monetary expansion and QE

2. Fiscal spending expansion

3. Commodity supply shock(s)

Again, neither of these are happening right now.

• While M2 is rising, the Fed is conducting QT.

• Government spending is likely to slow (DOGE).

• Commodity prices are flat YoY, with no supply shocks.

If/when we see these dynamics evolve in an inflationary manner, then I'll be concerned about a sustained & material acceleration of inflation.

But let me be very clear...

Inflation is here to stay, per the Fed's mandate for "price stability".

As I've said in the past, this mandate is a farce, as they actually target inflation stability, which is why they target 2% inflation per year.

Prices are going to keep rising.

My only point here is that a sustained & material (two extremely important key words) uptick in inflation is unlikely given the current macro conditions, even with tariffs coming into effect.

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