Today, there are two important events. One is the release of the non-farm payroll data tonight. According to current market expectations, it should alleviate some market pressure. However, more importantly, at 23:25 Beijing time tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook.
This speech can be seen as the Federal Reserve's expectations regarding the current economic situation. Personally, I estimate that Powell will definitely not mention anything about an economic recession. Last time, he shifted the blame to Trump, saying that if inflation rises, it might be due to tariffs. This time, I estimate there may be four key points:
The growth rate of the U.S. economy is slowing, the labor market is strong, but the overall economic level is stable.
Tariffs will lead to rising inflation, but the impact of one-time tariff increases on inflation is limited.
The Federal Reserve does not believe the economy will enter a recession, but if retaliatory measures due to tariffs lead to downside risks for the economy, the Federal Reserve will take additional measures.
No comments will be made on the path of interest rate cuts.
All of the above are my personal estimates and do not necessarily represent what will happen.
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